HISTORY, PROBABILITY INDICATE NEWCASTLE IS FOR REAL

With fans still stinging from the failure to fill the No. 9 shirt in the summer transfer market, there seems to be an understandable lack of belief in Newcastle United’s lofty fourth-place Premier League standing, all alone at nine points after five matches. There’s no way United can keep it up, right? With 33 matches left, it’s still too soon to get excited, right?

Actually: no. As a doctoral student years ago I did a statistical project on sports handicapping, and I can tell you, according to the laws of probability, five matches make a sample plenty large enough from which to draw confident predictions about a 38-match season. Predictions are still only predictions, and in the world of probability, “anything can happen” is a truth, not a cliché. But it would be very unusual for a team standing where Newcastle stands right now not to finish in the top eight after 33 more matches, in any league in any sport.

The history of the Premier League, as is researchable via this pretty cool site, bears out the probability. Tote up the standings of the past decade and the average final finish of the fourth-place club after five weeks is exactly fourth. No club standing fourth after five weeks has ever finished lower than 13th. It’s been 12 years since a club standing fourth after five games hasn’t gone to the Champions or UEFA/Europa leagues. In fact, only five times in Premier League history has a fourth-place club after five weeks not gone to Europe, and those were all in the first eight seasons of the league, when conditions were different, including more variance in the length of clubs’ off-seasons due to the international schedule. More recent seasons are more predictive, because they look more like the present.

I’m not a gambler; I don’t have a stomach for losing money. But I enjoy statistics and prediction, and I’ve been successful enough at handicapping NFL games for fun with the system I developed back in doctoral school that I’ve been occasionally offered a stake from investors who want to wager blindly according to the system. Unfortunately, statistics aren’t everything. You still need a human brain to vet the calculations a computer can do merely faster than a human. I never trust a statistic unless my brain can come up with a logical reason for what it’s telling me.

In this case, though, there are logical explanations for why Newcastle United’s early-season success might be real. Despite the failure to land a striker, Newcastle added more talent in the latest transfer window than most if not all the clubs behind them, including Yohan Cabaye, who is already being touted in some quarters as the Premier League signing of the summer. Yes, talent was lost in the window as well. But the talent gained was chosen for the manager’s system, not inherited, and at Aston Villa on Saturday we saw for the first time a team playing the brand of control football Alan Pardew has been touting since he landed. Consider that in context of a club that came within 30 minutes of ninth place last season, and fourth doesn’t seem so hard to believe.

Trends in the league as a whole may also be helping Newcastle. Talent is being concentrated ever increasingly on the rosters of three clubs. That leaves the rest to fight over an ever-diminishing pool and magnifies the impact of successful signings. It takes more talent than ever to be the best. Which inevitably means it takes less than ever to be best of the rest.

Newcastle United just went on the road against another unbeaten club – one of only four now left in the league – and dominated despite getting only a draw. The fourth-place club at this point of the Premier League season has nearly always had nine or 10 points. One could say Newcastle should have more than nine after Saturday. If it weren't for one uncharacteristic flub by the captain and a couple of brilliant saves by Shay Given, United would stand at 11 points, better than any fourth-place club after five weeks in Premier League history except Man City two seasons ago with 12. And United's prospects could improve from here, markedly, by finding someone in the next window to wear No. 9.

So rub your eyes as much as you like. Newcastle United’s fine start is, probably, not a mirage.

Comments

[Woo]

blackpool were 4th after 5 games. they got relegated?

[Bob]

Blackpool was 9th after 5 games.

http://www.statto.com/football/stats/england/premier-league/2010-2011/table/2010-09-19

[Drona]

good read

[Rob Moyer]

Don't do this Bob because then me and the rest of the NUFC faithful will start thinking big and that is something that has backfired on this particular set of supporters many times before.

P.S. I switched my ringtone this week from "Blaydon Races" to the Champions League theme song. Hopefully we win Saturday so I can keep it another week longer!

[Bob]

Probability is more powerful than superstition. Then again, I'm a Cubs fan in addition to supporting NUFC, so I get it.

[Jeff]

Since this particular post was laden with stat driven text I thought I might bring up a book I recently read, "Soccernomics". It may be old news, pub. 2009 I think, but it gives an interesting statistical angle on football in general. I too thought there was a 4th after 5 weeks in Reading 06-07. But, using the Statto site, found they were 6th after 5 weeks. Still went on to finish an impressive 8th first year up.