LET'S GET CARRIED AWAY AND NOT KEEP THINGS IN PERSPECTIVE

One of my favorite moments as a Newcastle United supporter is when everyone is going completely off the rails at some piece of good or bad news or fortune, and people start saying "let's not get carried away." That's just so poignant and hilarious at the same time - it's like an alcoholic walking into a Munich beer hall and saying "I can only stay for one." As an American fan I chose Newcastle precisely IN ORDER TO get carried away. If I wanted to clap politely and keep things in perspective, I'd follow Chelsea, or the Lakers, or astronomy. And after relegation and Ben Arfa's leg and Andy Carroll's bolt and the empty 9 shirt, it's about time we had something good to get carried away about.

Or is it so irrational to believe this club is as good as it looked in thrashing Blackburn? Last week we dealt with the argument that it's too early to tell: it isn't. After six matches, we're down to only four times in Premier League history that the fourth-place club hasn't gone to Europe. One of those clubs, Wimbledon in 1998-'99, did eventually sink to 16th by the end of the season. But with Saturday's victory, Newcastle United now looks to be above the norm for fourth-place teams at this point. Only one fourth-place club after six weeks has had more points than Newcastle's 12: Manchester United, with 13 points in 1994-'95. That Man U team went on to finish second.

Another argument gaining speed among the let's-not-get-carried-away crowd is that Newcastle "hasn't played anyone yet." Well, Arsenal isn't exactly no one, shaky start aside. Drawing Aston Villa away isn't shabby either, Villa being one of just four unbeatens left in the league. But looking at history the argument about schedule holds some water. No fourth-place club after six matches in Premier League history has had an easier run to this point than Newcastle United this season. The six clubs Newcastle has met thus far are currently 8th, 9th, 12th, 13th, 17th and 18th, totaling just 36 points between them, a historic low pending Monday's Norwich-Sunderland match, in which a Mackem victory would push Newcastle's opponents to a slightly more respectable 39. Other fourth-place clubs at this point have played opponents totaling an average of 45 points among them, and as many as 58 points.

Interestingly, though, the fourth-place club that played the toughest schedule to this point was the '99 Wimbledon club that crashed the hardest. The three most comparable fourth-place clubs at six weeks to Newcastle in terms of schedule strength were Manchester City in 2009-'10 (opponents had 39 points), Everton in 2006-'07 (37), and Southampton in 2003-'04 (39). Those clubs finished 5th, 6th and 12th. Next beyond that would be Newcastle's 1996-'97 club that was fourth after six weeks having played no one better than the Sheffield Wednesday club that eventually finished eighth. Newcastle, meanwhile, rose by the end of the season to second. I'm not in the mood to do hours of data entry and multiple regressions on this, but by eyeball it seems like strength of schedule is only mildly related to future performance at this point - certainly not as relevant as the overall record and standing.

So you're all welcome to try not to get your hopes up and protect yourself from disappointment and pretend you're rational after Saturday's sublime-as-French-wine performance. I'll be scouting a Valencia-Barcelona replay for Champions League purposes, and calling my Italian cousins to brag.

Comments

[Dave]

Good article keep it up.

[Rob Moyer]

I keep my Champions League ringtone for another week. TTBAWA!