HISTORY SAYS TOON WILL FADE WITHOUT MORE GOALS

In trying to forecast Newcastle United's future this season from the sublime start, we've concluded that it's not too early to draw conclusions, and we're only mildly concerned about the relatively soft set of fixtures so far. Digging deeper, though, there's one worrisome way in which Newcastle at this moment looks like every team in Premier League history that has faded to the bottom half from the same start: goals, or to be precise, the lack thereof.

Yes, goals are important in soccer. That's the kind of incisive analysis on which we've built this blog. To grasp just how important in this context, though, check the table at right. Of all the teams in Premier League history that have accumulated 15 points after seven matches, only three have done it with a goal difference of Newcastle's current plus 5 or worse. All three collapsed over the course of the season.

Goal difference isn't exactly the same as scoring. But Newcastle doesn't have enough room to improve on the defensive side. Only 18 teams in league history have conceded fewer goals through seven matches than this year's Toon. Unless this can become one of the better defenses the Premier League has seen - with no natural left back and limited depth to date - the offense must improve, markedly, for Newcastle to stay roughly where it is on the table much longer. Otherwise there simply isn't margin for error to survive a season's worth of scrapes like last week's against Wolves (never mind better clubs). Hatem Ben Arfa's return could help. But one reinforcement probably won't be enough.

In light of history like this, it's scary when knowledgeable supporters begin questioning whether a No. 9 is really necessary this season at Newcastle. Even my co-blogger, who is the most knowledgeable supporter I know, has been making such noises lately. That talk is not only questionable but dangerous. We may be feeling charitable toward club management lately given the inspiring start. But the Who-Needs-Another-Striker song is certainly too seductive to a certain price-sensitive owner's ears. Zip that, everyone. Please.

Comments

[Pavel]

The encouraging thing is that all of those teams stayed up. I don't want to sound negative, but let's not forget what our priorities were at the start of the season.

[Billy McGooligan]

I think you also need to consider the form of our players, as well as how long it takes for a new set of of players to gel as a team - especially after such a poor pre-season. This not only emphasises the achievement that our unbeaten run represents, but also indicates that scoring goals will become easier as form improves (eg Demba Ba) and the team get used to playing together (eg the ever improving partnership between Tiote & Cabaye, and the return to fitness from HBA and Marveaux).

[Jaeger]

i'd like to point out that arsenal in '95 had 1 more goal than us, ONE more goal, and they ended up 5th. that and liverpool was +12 (third best GD in this group) and ended up 7th so i'm not that worried. Goal differential means nothing unless its a tiebreaker. a result is a result.

[Ryan]

I agree that as form and time playing together improves, more goals will come. However, I do think we need one more striker type in January. I know assuming we will sign one is folly after the last couple of windows. But if we can get a true striker type in the door, along with HBA and Ba/Best, we will do very well. Without another striker, I think we can finish top 10, but we are going to have to be lucky in terms of injuries, etc.

[Rob]

You Americans and your stats!

I don't think anyone would expect the current side to remain 4th, but we do have some good players waiting to come in to the side, so I'm hopeful that we'll be able to maintain some momentum that way.