I Wish I Was A Geordie - The Blog of Newcastle United in the US

NEWCASTLE PASSES THE TEST

Newcastle United had a question to answer Sunday.

It wasn't whether the 2011-12 version is good enough to meet the board's expectation of a top-10 finish - we had all already seen enough to believe it is.

Sunday's match against Spurs was about whether Newcastle has enough to challenge for a European place this season. And after a pulsating 2-2 draw at St. James' Park, I'm confident in saying it does.

It's true that injuries could still wreak havoc on United's smaller-than-ideal squad. Bad stretches are bound to come up, too. But the ability is clearly there. Newcastle controlled the bulk of Sunday's match, something it simply couldn't do against the Premier League's top sides last season.

Think back to last season's corresponding fixture. Sure, Newcastle still emerged with a point from the match. But Spurs dictated play, with United trying to hold on defensively while being opportunistic in attack. You can get a result here and there doing that, but it's not a sustainable plan for success.

The way Newcastle played Sunday is. Legitimately good teams need to be able to control the action against quality opponents. And that's precisely what United did against Spurs, the best team it's faced this season. Yohan Cabaye and Cheik Tiote dictated play in the center of the midfield - with help from Demba Ba - which allowed Newcastle to win the possession battle and, eventually, craft some scoring opportunities.

Ba continued to show he might just be the lead striker United need this season, Jonas Gutierrez was his normal hard-working self on the left wing and Fabricio Coloccini was superb, his late miss aside. Not to mention Alan Pardew's three substitutes. Hatem Ben Arfa was clearly rusty, but still looked dangerous on the ball. Davide Santon wasn't as involved, but gave United a major upgrade in skill at right back. And Shola Ameobi once again demonstrated he's capable of world-class moments.

United's flaws were still visible. Danny Simpson again looked like a weak link at right back, offering little going forward (to be fair, his defending was fine). Steven Taylor reminded us that he's still prone to the odd rash challenge (although it should be noted that Cabaye's giveaway put him in a bad spot). Gabriel Obertan was disappointing in light of how many opportunities he had down the right wing. And United didn't create enough genuine scoring chances overall. Those are some of the reasons why Newcastle isn't realistically going to challenge for a Champions League spot this season.

But they can challenge for the Europa League. That much is clear after Sunday's performance.

BRING ON SANTON

The old adage is you don't change a winning team.

I'm sorry, but I just don't buy that - especially in Newcastle United's current situation.

Wins shouldn't completely disguise a team's faults. And despite an unbeaten start to the season, which has included six wins and three ties (albeit against not the most difficult schedule), Newcastle has some weaknesses that have yet to be exposed.

Chief among those is a pedestrian set of fullbacks. It's not that Danny Simpson and Ryan Taylor are flat-out bad - if they were, United would have conceded more than four goals in the Premier League this season. But Taylor isn't a natural left back - there could be a separate debate on whether he's more of a right-sided midfielder than a right back - and, despite two great free kick goals, has had to survive some shaky moments thus far. Simpson, meanwhile, hasn't impressed in the early going. He's offered little going forward and his defending hasn't inspired confidence.

It's no coincidence that in Newcastle's last two games, wins over Blackburn and Wolves, most of the opposition's threatening moves originated from out wide. Same with the scoreless draw at QPR, when Shaun Wright-Phillips was a constant menace down both flanks.

United has simply been able to overcome Simpson and Taylor's deficiencies so far, in part because of the quality of its opponents. It's not realistic to expect that to continue Sunday against Spurs, the best team Newcastle has faced to date and one that possesses dangerous wide men.

It'd be one thing if Alan Pardew didn't have any alternatives, which was the case at the beginning of the season. But Davide Santon appears to finally be fit after playing two full games for Italy's under-21 squad over the international break. Santon could come in at left back, allowing Pardew to use either Simpson or Taylor at right back (and theoretically at least, the two would push each other).

There's risk involved in giving a 20-year-old his first taste of the Premier League against a Champions League contender. In this case, though, it's a risk that's necessary.

TIME TO FIND OUT IF NEWCASTLE IS FOR REAL

Newcastle United fans have spent the first two months of the season trying to figure out if their team is for real.

Well, we're about to find out.

When Newcastle hosts Spurs on Sunday, it will be facing its biggest test to date. And from a big-picture perspective, the match kicks off an eight-game stretch that will likely determine the fate of United's season. We won't need to rely on past statistics anymore.

Apart from a home game against Wigan on Oct. 22, Newcastle's upcoming Premier League slate is brutal: at Stoke (Oct. 31), vs. Everton (Nov. 5), at Manchester City (Nov. 19), at Manchester United (Nov. 26) and vs. Chelsea (Dec. 3). How United fares should give us an indication of whether an unexpected run toward a European spot is realistic or just an early-season pipedream.

Then there's Alan Pardew's stated objective of an extended cup run. Newcastle's Carling Cup trip to Blackburn (Oct. 26) wouldn't seem daunting based on the chaotic state of that club at the moment. But given United's dubious history in the competition and the bizarre nature of cup football in general, it's hard to put that down as a gimme result.

It's fair to argue that Newcastle fared reasonably well against the Premier League's big guns last season. However, that was a different Newcastle team. This one sure looks capable of playing more expansive football - but is it as well suited to soak up pressure? It's one thing to do that at QPR or Wolves; doing it against Manchester City or Manchester United is a different animal.

So, what is Newcastle capable of this season? Check back with us on Dec. 3.

HISTORY SAYS TOON WILL FADE WITHOUT MORE GOALS

In trying to forecast Newcastle United's future this season from the sublime start, we've concluded that it's not too early to draw conclusions, and we're only mildly concerned about the relatively soft set of fixtures so far. Digging deeper, though, there's one worrisome way in which Newcastle at this moment looks like every team in Premier League history that has faded to the bottom half from the same start: goals, or to be precise, the lack thereof.

Yes, goals are important in soccer. That's the kind of incisive analysis on which we've built this blog. To grasp just how important in this context, though, check the table at right. Of all the teams in Premier League history that have accumulated 15 points after seven matches, only three have done it with a goal difference of Newcastle's current plus 5 or worse. All three collapsed over the course of the season.

Goal difference isn't exactly the same as scoring. But Newcastle doesn't have enough room to improve on the defensive side. Only 18 teams in league history have conceded fewer goals through seven matches than this year's Toon. Unless this can become one of the better defenses the Premier League has seen - with no natural left back and limited depth to date - the offense must improve, markedly, for Newcastle to stay roughly where it is on the table much longer. Otherwise there simply isn't margin for error to survive a season's worth of scrapes like last week's against Wolves (never mind better clubs). Hatem Ben Arfa's return could help. But one reinforcement probably won't be enough.

In light of history like this, it's scary when knowledgeable supporters begin questioning whether a No. 9 is really necessary this season at Newcastle. Even my co-blogger, who is the most knowledgeable supporter I know, has been making such noises lately. That talk is not only questionable but dangerous. We may be feeling charitable toward club management lately given the inspiring start. But the Who-Needs-Another-Striker song is certainly too seductive to a certain price-sensitive owner's ears. Zip that, everyone. Please.

NEWCASTLE'S HOT START WAS MADE IN AMERICA

Quick quiz: Before this year, when was the last time Newcastle United stood as high in the Premier League at the October break as it does now?

Answer: 2000-2001.

Quick quiz: Before this year, when was the last time Newcastle United went to America for the preseason?

Answer: 2000-2001.

Since we're Americans, you may know where this is going.

Clearly there's something about the U.S.A. that turbocharges the Toon to start the regular season. Scoff if you will, English readers and friends. The fact is, touring in America last summer prepared the Mags perfectly for the adversity they would face weeks later in England.

When Joey Barton packed off to QPR after his climactic meltdown in black and white, United was already accustomed to his absence, thanks to America's post-9/11 skittishness about letting foreigners with convictions for violent offenses into the country on work visas. At the same time, our country's illogic in denying Barton a visa to play soccer in the U.S. after letting him in weeks earlier to gamble in the U.S. helped steel players and staff against the club's illogical approach to its late business in the summer transfer window.

When Newcastle found itself fighting for its League Cup life at Scunthorpe, the potential embarrassment of losing to a struggling third-tier English team was hardly a worry after losing to a third-tier American team on scorched plastic at the Citrus Bowl in Orlando. Postscript: Orlando City went on to win the title in its league, for which the club received a trophy and another year in its league.

When the temperature soared to 82 degrees last Saturday at Molineux, press reports called it sweltering. Newcastle, on the other hand, felt cool - 20 degrees cooler than kickoff in Kansas City.

The distances, weather and logistics of preseason in America make the early season in England feel like a garden tour. In one respect, though, a U.S. trip for Newcastle is exactly the same as going on the road in England: surprisingly large contingents of spirited supporters who travel untold miles at untold inconvenience and expense to boost their heroes.

So maybe it's no coincidence that United has responded to both its American preseason sojourns by shooting out of the gates into the top four back home. Having been among the jolly traveling party following Newcastle across the plains last summer, we think the club should keep coming back until the truth is proved different.

FOR NOW, TAKE A BOW, MIKE ASHLEY

International breaks have a habit of obliterating the routine of European club football fans.

That's why I found myself forgetting to listen to The Guardian's much-acclaimed - and deservedly so - Football Weekly podcast until a late Thursday night workout. Generally it's a must for me on Mondays or Tuesdays, but with no Newcastle match this weekend to look forward to, I let it slip.

Newcastle generally isn't one of the podcast's main talking points - the price of having slid down the Premier League pecking order in recent years - but United's unexpectedly impressive start to the season drew some attention from James Richardson and Co. this week.  And that led to pundit Barry Glendenning, a Sunderland fan but an entertaining character, posing a worthwhile question for all Newcastle followers: Should we be giving Mike Ashley some credit for United's current standing?

In short, yes. Despite his past transgressions, Ashley deserves some praise for what's going on at the club.

After all, he was the one who took a huge gamble last December by firing Chris Hughton and replacing him with Alan Pardew in what was an incredibly unpopular move at the time. Ten months later, Pardew has Newcastle playing attractive ball, defending well and getting results. He's also overseen some behind-the-scenes changes - settling the issue about player bonuses and pushing for heating underneath the training field, to name two - that shouldn't be underestimated. If you're going to give credit to Pardew, then in turn you have to credit Ashley for hiring him out of the blue.

And while he didn't fund a major summer spending spree, Ashley still had to sign off on Newcastle's transfer market maneuvers. Yohan Cabaye has looked like a brilliant signing since his first appearance. Demba Ba could be one of the steals of the summer. And United managed to improve the overall athleticism of its squad while clearing off the sizable salaries of Kevin Nolan and Joey Barton, two more gambles that have paid off in the short term. There's a temptation to say that Ashley was just being frugal this summer and was lucky to land quality players on the cheap. Regardless of his motives, though, the strategy has worked thus far.

Of course, we're only seven games into the Premier League season. Newcastle's failure to land a striker on the transfer window's final day was the source of plenty of negativity, and given the fact that United has struggled to generate genuine scoring chances at times and Ba (and possibly Shola Ameobi) will be at the African Cup of Nations in January, that decision could yet still backfire. And while the squad depth has improved overall, it's still worringly thin along the backline. A significant injury to Fabricio Coloccini or Steven Taylor could torpedo Newcastle's season in a hurry.

But those are hypotheticals. For now, we should all say yes, Mike Ashley deserves some credit.

SLIDING OFF TOON RADAR, DERDIYOK BICYCLES BACK

Newcastle United scouts have been tracking young Bayer Leverkusen and Switzerland striker Eren Derdiyok for more than three years now, including during Switzerland's 3-1 qualifier victory over Bulgaria Sept. 6, and, according to some reports, as recently as last week. What they've seen lately may not have been impressive, judging from the fresh spate of rumors that Newcastle is preparing a bid for rival target Modibo Maiga of Sochaux. Reports out of Germany say Derdiyok has been in such poor form that Leverkusen is looking at replacement options, including Vasco de Gama's Diego Souza, also the subject of faint Newcastle rumors. 

Sounds like Derdiyok might be dropping off the Newcastle radar, right? Not so fast.

The Maiga rumors haven't been confirmed in reliable English or French media outlets, and quotes are coming only from the player, whose desire to leave Ligue 1 has already reached striking proportions. The Souza-to-Leverkusen rumors haven't made the mainstream German media, either. And it's only October.

What's more, on Saturday, Derdiyok did this:

 

If that isn't the goal of the year, worldwide, we'd like to see the goal that is.

One can tell just so much about a player by a single goal, and the praise for Derdiyok from club management after Saturday's match was oddly faint. "Eren gets goals like that," Leverkusen director Rudi Voller told the Bundesliga official web site. "The simple balls he gets sometimes don't go in. He's one for the dream goals." Even this goal, dreamy as it may have been, was undermined by a yellow card for the strip tease that followed. And now Derdiyok is fighting a thigh injury going back into European qualifying, an injury he's fought before.

Still, the Swiss international seems like a more natural compliment for Demba Ba than Maiga, who could be Ba's slightly smaller and slower brother. By contrast Derdiyok comes off on film as a bigger, stronger, and marginally faster version of the Beast That Is Shola, with smoother technique and six years younger. "I've never given up, even when I haven't played," he told the Bundesliga site after his wonderstrike. "I haven't slacked off in training. On the contrary, I've tried to force my way back in. The manager gave me a chance and I was able to respond, and I thank him for the trust."

Eren Derdiyok has spirit. Plus one hell of a bicycle. If you can imagine the goal pictured above in St. James' Park and not get a chill, you're probably looking for a blog about some other club than Newcastle.

WHY RATINGS MIGHT BE UNDERRATING NEWCASTLE

When ref Mark Halsey plucked two points off the end line in extra time Saturday against Wolves and put it back in Newcastle United's pocket, it brought to mind an article I once wrote about baseball umpires fighting their way up through the minor leagues. The young umpires were haunted by the expectation of perfection in their jobs and the reality of being inexperienced, not to mention human. One of their semi-conscious coping mechanisms was to give the benefit of the doubt on close calls to the better player, the better team. In that way an error was less likely to produce an unjust final result. It's a phenomenon that's evident in all sport, and has reached absurd proportions in some quarters, like the NBA, in which stars sometimes appear subject to an entirely different rulebook from journeymen.

The danger of unjust results is far greater in soccer than baseball or basketball. Baseball teams play 162 games a season and score an average of four times a game; NBA teams play 82 games a season and score every minute. By comparison the dearth of scoring and the shortness of the season in the Premier League magnify each referee's call a hundredfold. So perhaps it shouldn't be surprising that, at two decisive moments Saturday, razor-thin calls went to the team with the better of the play most of the afternoon and the season to that point. Perhaps those so-called strokes of luck were earned - just as Newcastle's oft-remarked bad luck in recent years may have had something to do with their play and not just the officiating. If so, this is the kind of phenomenon that isn't picked up by statistical indexes still rating 4th-place Newcastle as the 8th- or 9th-best club in the Premier League, as well as fans who are slow to believe the lofty standing is justified and who viewed Saturday's result as mere fortune or injustice.

The most persuasive argument against the validity of Newcastle's standing, as we've reluctantly acknowledged, is that the club hasn't played any of the league's traditional powers. Yet Newcastle performed decently against the top five of the league last season. It was against its fellows in the league's middle ten that Newcastle struggled most. Last season Newcastle netted 8 points in 10 matches against the top five clubs, and 21 points in 10 matches against the bottom five clubs - but only 17 points in 18 matches against the clubs in the middle. Newcastle already has more than half as many points in its five matches against the middle 10 clubs in the league as they managed against those clubs all last season.

Newcastle hardly has to improve at all over last season against big clubs to remain in contention with them. But Newcastle must improve significantly, as has been the case so far, in close matches against mid-table clubs, matches that last season too often featured not only uninspired play but also robberies by flag or whistle. The referees, if not the ratings systems or the fans, appear ready to give United the benefit of the doubt.

LUCK AT MOLINEUX DOESN'T ERASE EXCELLENCE

There's no getting around it: Newcastle was incredibly lucky to escape with a 2-1 away win over Wolves on Saturday.

Alan Pardew admitted it. Pretty much every Newcastle fan on Twitter admitted it.

That shouldn't completely erase the fact that United controlled the game for 70 minutes. Or that it did so while putting together some passages of play that signalled that this hot start to the season might be more than, well, just a hot start. But it should serve as a reminder that Newcastle still has its share of concerns, even if it sits third in the Premier League table going into Sunday's games.

United is playing with more flair after a mini-transformation in the summer, which for the most part is a welcome change. But there has to be a balance between inventiveness and intelligence. There are times to play backheels; when you're in your own half and are protecting a lead on the road isn't one of them (raise your hand, Gabriel Obertan).

Fabricio Coloccini and Cheik Tiote were both guilty of bad giveaways deep in their own half as well. It wasn't the first time Tiote has played himself into trouble this season, either.

And despite Demba Ba scoring for the second straight week and a tireless performance from Leon Best - his hold-up play and unselfishness shouldn't go unnoticed - Newcastle appears to be lacking a killer instinct in attack, particularly when trying to finish teams off. Ba had several second-half chances to end any drama, but couldn't do it. Obertan continues to look dangerous on counter attacks until he gets within 20 yards of goal. Best doesn't quite have the pace to punish teams on the break. Maybe Hatem Ben Arfa is the answer to that problem. Or maybe a speedy striker is still required.

In general, Newcastle looks like a team that's still learning how to see out games, a lesson it will need to learn if it's to maintain this early-season pace. The grit and determination seem to be there; it's the composure that seems to be a bit lacking at times. Had United maintained its rate of possession in the final 15 minutes, then Kevin Doyle's would-be equalizer most likely would never have happened in the first place.

All that said, this performance shouldn't be viewed as a negative, even if good fortune donated Newcastle two free points in the table. Coloccini, apart from his giveaway, and Steven Taylor, apart from his silly foul on Jamie O'Hara that should have been a penalty, were rocks in the back. Tim Krul showed yet again that he's blossoming into a world-class goalkeeper in what might have been his best performance as a Newcastle player. Tiote and Yohan Cabaye owned the center of the midfield, while Jonas Gutierrez was on top of his game, terrorizing Wolves right back Richard Stearman and tracking back to help out Ryan Taylor.

So, yes, Newcastle was lucky on Saturday. But United was also pretty good at times, even if it will need to be better down the road.

TIME FOR SIMPSON TO PICK IT UP

Statistically speaking, Newcastle United has the best defense in the English football pyramid at the moment.

Yet Newcastle's biggest liability may well involve its backline. That's got nothing to do with Fabricio Coloccini or Steven Taylor, who look like the best center back pairing that United has had in some time. It's not a knock on Ryan Taylor, either, despite the fact that he's had a few wobbly moments while filling in out of position at left back.

Danny Simpson is the worrisome link in the defensive chain. While he's a likeable guy and his efforts to interact with fans on Twitter are greatly appreciated, his performances at right back have been one of the few concerns during Newcastle's uplifting start to the season.

Simpson doesn't seem to have progressed much - if any - over the past two seasons. Case in point: Simpson had two assists in his first season at Newcastle; he hasn't had any since United returned to the Premier League. Stats don't come close to telling the whole story in soccer, but that one is indicative of the quality of crosses Simpson is delivering.

That wouldn't be as big of a deal if Simpson was locking down the opposition's left flank. But that's not happening either. A week ago, Simpson struggled badly to deal with Blackburn's Martin Olsson, a player who, while underrated, isn't overly tricky and certainly isn't one of the Premier League's top wingers. Olsson set up Blackburn's lone goal, then hit the crossbar with a shot that could have greatly changed the complexion of the game. Almost all of Blackburn's dangerous play came down the left before Olsson was sent off in the 69th minute.

Considering Wolves left winger Matt Jarvis is a step above Olsson, Simpson's performance could go a long way toward determining United's fate today at Molineux. And if it's not better than last week's showing, then win or lose, it might be time to rework the backline (hello, Davide Santon) - even if it is still the best in England.