The Key To Newcastle's Chances: Chances

In contrast to a number of commentators, including some of genius-level soccer IQ like my co-blogger Tom, I'm not reading much into Newcastle's thrashing Saturday at the hands of Spurs. Tom is correct that Newcastle has been inconsistent against the Premier League's top clubs this season. But the league is down to only three such clubs, against which Newcastle is still a respectable 1-2-2 so far this season, including a horse-whipping of Manchester United in the previous test. Taking a decimated engine room into an away match against a Champions-destined club in top form, Newcastle had little chance to compete. In the hangover of defeat Tom wrote that fourth place looks unrealistic despite the tight grouping on the table. I don't agree. With the midfield set to return, a No. 9 yet to settle in, only one match left against the top three (at home, no less), and none of the surrounding clubs making a move, there's still plenty of reason to believe Newcastle is a contender - maybe the favorite - to secure England's last Champions League spot.

There's one critical respect, though, in which Newcastle still resembles the Championship more than the Champions: the ability to create scoring chances. It sticks out like a sore toe in the Opta statistics we've been playing with (via our cool new EPL Index subscription), and the remainder of the season is likely to turn on whether Alan Pardew is able or willing to do anything about it. When Newcastle gets chances, they're buried at a greater clip than almost anywhere else in the league, and that's likely to get even better, thanks to the Senegalese special ops division at the front. But once the stats are updated with this past weekend's games, only two clubs will be lower on the table than Newcastle at creating scoring chances: relegation candidate Blackburn, and Stoke, which plays the dictionary opposite of the precision-passing game Pardew maintains he favors. The really bad news, as is evident from the chart above, is that at the Premier League level of soccer, winning is more about creating chances than the rate at which they're converted. If a team creates enough chances, sooner or later, enough will go in.

What, if anything, can be done about this? With seven of Pardew’s preferred starters creating less than one chance per game, and an eighth, Gabriel Obertan, flirting with the bench, the need for a change in team and/or formation barely needs stating anymore. We've recently written about the potential advantages of inserting Danny Guthrie alongside Cheick Tiote and Yohan Cabaye in a 4-3-3. Failing that, and given recent reports that Sylvain Marveaux is close to being ruled out for the season, there’s but one promising chance-maker left for Pardew to choose: Hatem Ben Arfa. We’re sorry, Mr. Pardew. Yes, his brilliance is too often seen only in flashes. Yes, his work rate and defense leave plenty to be desired. But with the club safe now from relegation, what’s to lose? Isn't a shot at Europe worth the risk of giving up a few meaningless goals and random spots on the table?

Perhaps that's not the way Pardew thinks. Just because Newcastle can contend for the Champions League doesn't mean the club is ready to be there. Maybe the manager feels it's best to build rather than leap toward Europe, while sending a strong message to his club about discipline and effort. That's his prerogative.

But it would make the acquisition of Papiss Cisse at the league's highest January price into a head-scratcher. What's the point of having two world-class finishers running around with no one to serve them? True, Cisse wasn't acquired with only this season in mind. But the next transfer window could be crueler than the last, and next fall could find Newcastle back at mid-table, even with Cisse. There's no better way to guard against future player defections than getting to the Champions League now.

Newcastle has arrived at the previously unimaginable situation, in outward appearance at least, of Mike Ashley showing more ambition than Alan Pardew. The owner has taken a chance. The manager should consider following suit - or he may see his club's chances at goals, victories and Europe fade away with the winter.

Comments

[Ryan]

Certainly some very interesting stats. Whether we are truly ready for Champions League or not, we certainly should go for it, I agree. That can go a long way in helping players to stay and convincing others to come to Newcastle vs. go other places.

As the last article mentioned, getting a pacy winger or two will really open things up for us. We certainly need to create more chances as we can all see.

HBA is a tough enigma. I can see and argument both ways for him playing/not playing. Certainly, he has the ability to make special things happen. But, consistency is key. I thought for sure we would see him Saturday since Cabaye, Tiote, and Raylor were missing. Especially since he was about the only midfielder that we could have played that would have truly concerned Spurs. The fact that he didn't even make it on the pitch at all in a 5-0 drubbing doesn't bode well for him seeing playing time now that Tiote and Cabaye are back.

Overall, I agree with you Bob. It was a bad loss, but certainly not time to start panicking. As long as we come back fine in the next couple of games, which I am sure we will, then we will be fine. I think we can still push for a 4-5 spot. Chelsea is certainly having issues, and Liverpool and Arsenal haven't shown me anything proving they will really pull away from us. We just need to concentrate on each of our games, and not be looking ahead or score watching. The focus should be on taking 3 points every game. Let everything else shake out on its own.