I Wish I Was A Geordie - The Blog of Newcastle United in the US

Is Carroll The Problem With Liverpool, Or Vice Versa?

Before the recent Arsenal match, in what has become one of our more heavily read posts, we ran a comparison of Demba Ba, Robin Van Persie and Andy Carroll concluding that Carroll has never been as good at converting chances as shot-making savants like Van Persie and Ba, and he's been hurt additionally at Liverpool by an offense that's built to create lots of chances but not necessarily good ones. Since then I've noticed Newcastle fans tend to fall into two camps on what's happened to Carroll at Liverpool: those who think Carroll is the problem, and those who think Liverpool is the problem. With Carroll's return in red to St. James' Park approaching, the last couple of days I've dug a bit deeper in an effort to see if one camp has a stronger case than the other.

On the side of those who think the team is the problem, the frequency of Carroll's touches, shots and chances have all declined precipitously at Liverpool. When Carroll is in for Liverpool, he's waiting about 20 extra seconds of play for every touch, more than 6 extra minutes for every shot, and nearly 70 extra minutes for every clear-cut chance, defined by Opta as "a situation where a player should reasonably be expected to score, usually in a one-on-one scenario or from very close range." Some of this could be down to the player, but the drop seems too steep not to be at least partly a function of the team and the structure of its play. One might argue Carroll doesn't have as much of the spotlight on a more star-filled club. One might argue back that it's silly to spend £35 million on a striker without making him a centerpiece.

There's also support, though, on the side of those who think Carroll is the problem, that his play has simply dropped off for whatever reason since leaving United. Though Carroll is getting fewer shots at Liverpool, he's getting about the same number of shots inside the box - most of the decline is in longer shots. And of the clear-cut chances Carroll is getting at Liverpool, he's converting a jaw-droppingly low 15 percent, after netting 35 percent at Newcastle. Interestingly, 35 percent is about the league average for converting clear-cut chances – more evidence that Carroll, as a pure shot-maker, has never been in the elite class. At 15 percent he’s near the bottom of the league when presented with an easy scoring chance. In my years following and reporting sports, I’ve learned that when players begin messing up the easier tasks, that’s usually mental, the result of pressure. Which is what a player signs up for when he leaves the relative comfort of home for world-class money and expectations.

So who’s right, those who think Liverpool is hurting Carroll, or Carroll is hurting himself? Everyone is right. There’s little doubt Liverpool could be giving better service to its leading Geordie. There’s also little doubt something bad is going on when someone with Carroll’s skills is beating a lone defender or keeper only 15 percent of the time. It stands to reason neither team nor player is completely to blame. After all, soccer is a team sport – maybe the quintessential team sport – and very little happens in an individual vacuum. Or, to put it as a Liverpool fan might: You never suck alone.

Don't Boo Andy Carroll, Thank Him

Alan Pardew says Newcastle United still loves Andy Carroll. Carroll says he still loves Newcastle United and won't celebrate if he scores Sunday in his return to St. James' Park.

And I suggest Newcastle fans join in on this lovefest, although I know full well that plenty will boo Carroll and call him Judas when he walks out wearing the red of Liverpool. I understood why people were upset when Carroll was sold. He was the hometown boy who partied hard and played harder. He was the No. 9 who battered center backs. He was easy for fans to identify with.

What I can't understand is the continued vitriol toward him. We'll probably never truly know how Carroll felt about his move to Liverpool. Maybe he was forced out. Maybe he forced his way out. I don't really care. Carroll landed Newcastle £35 million, a ridiculous sum that has allowed the club to greatly accelerate its rebuilding process.

Had Carroll stayed, Newcastle might have been tempted to build around him and persist with the sort of gritty team that it had last season. Kevin Nolan and Joey Barton might have stayed because they fit that mold. And Newcastle would have been worse for it.

Instead, Newcastle has a young skillful team that is on the rise and has in large part been funded by that £35 million. And for that, we should all thank - not boo - Andy Carroll.

Summer Tour Update: Newcastle In Demand

With readers emailing and searching our site almost continually in recent days for news about Newcastle United's summer plans and a possible return trip to the U.S., here's what we know: not much. And for American fans, that's not good. The surprising success of the season appears to have made Newcastle a hotter summer commodity than last year.

Sources among our readership who are familiar with Major League Soccer report that talks about a match with Philadelphia Union didn't pan, and the Union just announced a summer date with Aston Villa. We haven't heard rumblings about possible dates elsewhere in the U.S. for Newcastle. NUFC has been coy so far about its summer plans, not ruling anything out. But Alan Pardew recently told the Chronicle in Newcastle that offers are on the table from the Far East and Europe as well as the States, and that money will play a factor in the decision, which may not place U.S. clubs wooing Newcastle at an advantage. “I think we’ll be balancing it out between a financial situation which I think will be important for us," Pardew said. “We now carry a bit of clout and we’ve had a few nice offers, I think that’s important.... I don’t want to hide from the fans the fact that that will be a factor.”

Summer tours for Premier League clubs are a musical-chairs game, and there's no telling for sure yet where Newcastle United will land - Newcastle is still not as big a ticket around the world as some of its English rivals, and until announcements are finished the possibility of a return trip to the U.S. still exists. But we're feeling increasingly pessimistic about a Newcastle visit to American toons this summer.

The 4-3-3 At Its Finest

We've made no secret of the fact that we'd like to see Alan Pardew utilize a more fluid formation than the traditional English 4-4-2 this season.

And to Pardew's credit, he's shown a pretty good sense of understanding when to stick with the ol' tried and true alignment and when to be a bit more adventurous. He was bold on Sunday at West Brom and was handsomely rewarded.

Newcastle's 4-3-3 look, with Demba Ba, Papiss Cisse and Hatem Ben Arfa spearheading the attack, ripped West Brom apart in the 3-1 win. United had to survive a few shaky moments at the back after captain Fabricio Coloccini departed at halftime with a hamstring injury, but by then its front three had provided enough of a cushion.

Sunday's performance was significant because it showcased just how deadly Ba, Cisse and Ben Arfa can be when they're on the same wavelength. That hadn't yet happened, mostly because those three have only been on the field together for about 90 minutes (roughly 27 vs. Sunderland and 63 last week vs. Norwich).

Ba and Ben Arfa, operating on the left and right, respectively, and weaving inside frequently, combined to complete 53 of 59 passes (Ba was a ridiculous 30-for-33, while Ben Arfa was 23-for-26). Their interplay in the buildup to Newcastle's third goal - Cisse's second - looked instinctual. Most importantly, the trio's movement flowed. Newcastle has had some outstanding moments this season, but this was the best pure attacking display.

Behind United's attacking trio, Yohan Cabaye, Jonas Gutierrez and Danny Guthrie were exactly what they needed to be: steady. Gutierrez's 48 completed passes and 60 attempts were both team highs, and he also led Newcastle in touches. Guthrie completed 86 percent of his passes (44-for-51), a figure that was bettered only by Ba (91) and Ben Arfa (88) among those who played the entire match. Cabaye's numbers weren't eye-catching, but he made the sort of intelligent forward runs that are necessary from one of the midfielders in a 4-3-3.

The only real blemishes in an otherwise sterling performance came at the back after Coloccini's early exit. Mike Williamson was significantly better than last week, but one exceedingly poor moment gave Shane Long a goal and rekindled some hope for West Brom. Even so, Albion only managed two shots on target (Newcastle had seven), in spite of the fact that United logically dropped deeper as the game wore on (and, as a result, West Brom actually out-possessed Newcastle for the game).

Coloccini's replacement at center back, James Perch (who started the game at left back), was composed on the ball (32-for-38 passing, 68 touches - second to only Gutierrez) and effective in the air (a team-best four successful headed clearances). It's hard to say which is more impressive: Perch's rapid improvement since the start of 2012 or his ability to shake off a Billy Jones cross to the nether regions.

The early reports are that Coloccini could miss three or four games, a significant speed bump in Newcastle's race toward Europe - even in light of Perch's encouraging recent form. But maybe, just maybe, Ba, Cisse and Ben Arfa will provide enough offense to compensate.

Big Spenders Make It Pay To Be Cheap

You would think, standing a strong sixth more than two-thirds of the way through the season, that Newcastle United would have shaken any question about deserving to be in European contention alongside the so-called big clubs. But I've been having trouble convincing myself about a club that struggled at home against Norwich, that was pushed around the pitch (despite valiant effort) at Arsenal, that came within seconds of a devastating home loss against Sunderland, that could scrape only a 2-2 draw at SJP against relegation-fodder Wolves, that caved for five goals at Tottenham...etc. Somehow the form has been worse since the end of the African Cup of Nations, the addition of Papiss Cisse and the return to something resembling a full-strength roster. There are rationalizations, such as the loss of Steven Taylor, which has exposed a wafer-thin back line. Still, as kickoff at West Brom approaches, it would make me feel better if Newcastle was capable of dominating anyone - anyone - to the point of letting me sit back at the pub on a weekend morning and have a cocktail instead of breath shortness and chest pains.

It has occurred to me that perhaps a club simply doesn't have to be very good anymore to stand sixth in the Premier League. Maybe the big spenders have spent to the point where there's simply not that much difference among the clubs that spend less. Yesterday I began morbidly leafing through old Premier League tables to validate the theory. What I found, encouragingly, was the opposite. Newcastle stands exactly where history would put a club with 47 points after 29 matches: sixth place. Despite continual record-breaking spending by the top clubs, the table isn't significantly more skewed than in the early days of the league. In fact the rest of the league appears to have caught up a bit with the top since mid-decade.

Beyond the point of what smaller clubs can afford, it's not easy to see exactly what the rich clubs are buying with their ever-larger heaps of money. As wary as I still am about Mike Ashley, the time is obviously ripe for his brand of frugality. While some clubs' budgets may have no limit, there are only so many spots on the field, leaving plenty of value at the sub-Andy Carroll level for the not-quite-so-big clubs. That's why Papiss Cisse is in black and white. Similarly, I'm only mildly worried about Demba Ba being cherry-picked this summer. At the level of spending above Newcastle's line, clubs can afford big names without "degenerative knee condition" on their medical charts.

Recently it was discovered that Robert Kraft, the well-heeled owner of the NFL New England Patriots and the MLS New England Revolution, had been investigating the purchase of an unnamed Premier League club but ruled it out due to the lack of American-style salary caps in English football. If Newcastle United continues toward Europe - and it's not hard to envision Newcastle, on its modest budget, putting an even better team on the field next season - perhaps Kraft and other prospective owners will have second thoughts. Escalating wages haven't enabled rich clubs to expand the distance between themselves and the middle class of the league. Perhaps the free market, as Adam Smith would've predicted, is due to slap its own spending controls on the Premier League.

Ranger Finally On Way Out? Hopefully

Nile Ranger left Newcastle United on a temporary basis Thursday, joining Sheffield Wednesday on loan.

Hopefully he'll be departing for good this summer. Ranger has become the ultimate example of just how foolish it is to assume that potential will automatically turn into production.

Newcastle made that mistake when it gave the then-19-year-old a 5 1/2-year contract late in 2010, a decision based on 1 1/2 seasons of first-team contributions in which Ranger had scored three goals. To be fair, Ranger had mostly been used as an impact substitute and had shown an intriguing combination of size and speed.

But Ranger has never looked like a particularly skilled player. Nor has he ever been the sort of hard worker who could address that deficiency. Even worse, he clearly just doesn't get it. Anyone who's seen his nonsensical Twitter account - or read his lengthy criminal record - can confirm as much.

Maybe, just maybe, the light will go on for Ranger at some point and he can carve out a career as a physical striker in the mold of Cameron Jerome (although that seems so unlikely that we should probably apologize to Mr. Jerome for even making the comparison). Either way, Newcastle needs to make Ranger someone else's problem as soon as possible.

A Win, And An Ugly One At That

Newcastle United entered Sunday's home match against Norwich City in a mini-rut, having gone four games without a win. It showed.

The result - a 1-0 win courtesy of a Papiss Cisse goal - didn't reflect the performance. Newcastle produced a sleepy and totally uneven showing that, luckily for United, came against a Norwich team that showed no attacking power.

Newcastle strung together some bright offensive sequences, including the move that led to Cisse's goal (as well as two easier chances he should have buried). But United cancelled those moments out with some troubling attempts to play the ball out of defense and a general inability to maintain possession in the second half.

With Cheick Tiote and Ryan Taylor out injured, Alan Pardew opted for a 4-4-2/4-5-1 hybrid formation, with Jonas Gutierrez playing as a left wingback and Yohan Cabaye, Danny Guthrie and James Perch making up an interchanging midfield core. At times the formation looked inventive, but more often than not it appeared awkward. To be fair to Pardew, that probably had more to do with Tiote's absence than the alignment itself.

Guthrie and Cabaye seemed to struggle to find their rhythm and stay out of each other's way (both were below their season averages for pass completion). Perch was my choice for man of the match, but he simply isn't as comfortable on the ball as Tiote.

And Newcastle looked wobbly when trying to play the ball out of the back. Mike Williamson was the chief culprit, completing only 63 percent of his passes. Danny Simpson completed 79 percent, but only played 38 percent of his passes forward. Sunday's performance continued to highlight the need for improvement at those two positions.

Norwich, on the other hand, started off poorly - American center back Zak Whitbread looked as if he was trying to out-do Williamson in making repeated defensive errors - before slowly taking control of the match. The visitors finished with a clearcut passing advantage, both in terms of raw volume (424-for-522 vs. 310-for-415) and percentage (81 to 75).

Fortunately for Newcastle, Norwich didn't make use of that possession and only carved out nine chances - one less than United. Paul Lambert also doesn't have a striker like Cisse.

He wasn't as efficient as United would want him to be, but his finish on what wasn't really even a clearcut chance was superb. One moment like that won't always be enough to win a match - it usually won't be - but it was on Sunday.

Don't Be Discouraged By Arsenal Loss

No one said it was easy supporting Newcastle. My co-blogger Bob called last night's last-minute loss the lowest moment he's had as a fan of the club. It seemed like Alan Pardew had successfully dusted off the playbook he'd used in the draw at Old Trafford. But this time, Danny Simpson wasn't there to clear off the line in the 94th minute. He was caught well up the field after his errant throw-in led to Arsenal's game-winning counterattack.

However, there were plenty of encouraging signs yesterday in Pardew's first-half approach and formation. Against a less talented and confident side - such as Norwich on Sunday - this approach will pay dividends.

Newcastle started the game in a fairly fluid 4-2-3-1, dissuading fears of the drab football that has plagued some recent performances. The quirk, of course, was putting Gabriel Obertan in a number 10 role and keeping Hatem Ben Arfa out on the right. It almost made sense; Obertan looked fairly effective in his cameo appearances there. But 10 minutes against Blackburn is not exactly the same as starting away to Arsenal, and Obertan looked unsure of what to do for most of the match. His biggest contribution was the woeful pass to an unmarked Ben Arfa that ended the only real chance of the second half. 

It was also a disappointing evening for Davide Santon, whose positioning at left back was left wanting. Time and again, Santon would charge out to midfield, trying (and failing) to cut off Bacary Sagna. That left a cavernous gap for Theo Walcott to exploit. As the defense struggled to reshuffle, Arsenal ended up with exactly what it wanted: Robin van Persie, the league's best striker, one-on-one with Mike Williamson. 

Arsenal's midfield trio of Tomas Rosicky, Mikel Arteta, and Alex Song conjured up memories of some of Newcastle's early-season performances, not giving Yohan Cabaye and Cheick Tiote any space to operate. Arteta, in particular, was a possession machine for Arsene Wenger's crew, completing 83 of 88 passes (94%) and winning the ball back with three interceptions as well. As the game continued, Rosicky and Arteta pushed up even further, forcing an interminable stream of backpasses to Tim Krul - who actually led Newcastle in touches by a considerable amount.

But none of this should be surprising when playing Arsenal at this point in time. Outside of that 4-0 blip in Milan, it has been an impressive run for van Persie and company. The dominant second half skewed so many of the statistics on offer, but make no mistake: unlike the first half against Sunderland, Pardew sent Newcastle out to play passing football last night. The formation switch and inclusion of Ben Arfa shows what he had in mind. And the preferred forward pairing of Demba Ba behind Papiss Cisse, with Ben Arfa on the right wing, will give Norwich plenty to think about as they walk into St. James' Park Sunday afternoon.

Ba, Van Persie And Carroll: A Tale Of Three Strikers

Monday’s match at Emirates Stadium between Newcastle United and Arsenal is notable because it features the Premier League’s top two sharpshooters. Demba Ba and Robin Van Persie have been first and second among the league’s chance converters all season, though Ba has slipped below the blistering 30-percent-plus pace he was maintaining before his African Cup of Nations sojourn, allowing Van Persie within striking distance (so to speak) of the category.

As we’ve written before, Ba’s ability to attract and convert chances appears to be the main factor in Newcastle United standing higher on the league table than in most statistical categories. Arsenal, meanwhile, has been lower on the table for much of the season than its statistical profile despite Van Persie’s marksmanship. Which begs what for me is one of soccer's most fascinating questions: Do great strikers make great teams, or do great teams make great strikers?

From watching the sport, I've always felt that strikers, as a whole, are overrated: Most strikers get about what their teams give them. At transfer season, when my co-blogger Tom posts his phenomenal Building a Better Newcastle guides, in watching the video highlights he chooses it strikes me (so to speak) how many of the strikers' goals seem like easy finishes. Yes, a striker has to be in the right place at the right time, and that's a talent not easily spotted by the naked eye. But I don't think it's as rare a talent as it takes to generate the chance. My hunch is only a small minority of elite strikers reap better than what their teams sow for them, a minority that includes Van Persie and Ba.

With the Arsenal match looming I decided to look at some statistics to see if they back up my hunch. Sure enough, few strikers convert chances at a notably higher rate than their teams as a whole. But Van Persie and Ba do. Arsenal overall is converting 16 percent of its chances, third in the league; Van Persie is knocking in 26 percent. Newcastle is fourth in the league at 15 percent chance conversion; Ba is at 27 percent. The league average is around 13 percent, which tells you how astounding these two snipers are at finding the back of the net. (And by the way, Papiss Cisse has broken out in the Premier League better than either Ba or Van Persie at converting chances: 29 percent so far. He needs more opportunities.)

So what makes a great sniper? What part of scoring does the striker control, and what part does the team control? From what the numbers seem to say, the striker's main responsibility, quite simply, is to put the ball on goal. Whether it goes in is more a function of the quality of the chance, over which the striker appears to have less control. The elite strikers have high and consistent shot accuracy from year to year and club to club. But their conversion rates, while higher than their teams' as a whole, seem to vary more according to which club they're on at the time and how well the club is functioning as an entire offense. Consider Ba's numbers last season at West Ham. His shot accuracy, while not quite as scorching as it's been at Newcastle, was close at 54 percent. But his conversion rate, on a club headed toward relegation, was more than 25 percent lower.

Now consider a case that's perhaps even more compelling for Newcastle fans: Andy Carroll. Carroll has never been as accurate a shot-maker as Van Persie or Ba. At Newcastle last season he had 26 shots on target and 34 off (43 percent); so far at Liverpool his accuracy is almost identical, 25 shots on and 34 off. At Newcastle his chance conversion rate was 18 percent, only slightly ahead of his club. At Liverpool his conversion rate is a depressing 8 percent - exactly the same as his team, which sits at the bottom of the Premier League in that category.

Here's what I think.

1. Carroll is an above-standard Premier League striker, but not in the league of Robin Van Persie and Demba Ba - never has been, never will be.

2. By various accounts Liverpool, seduced by the success of statistic-based "moneyball" in American sport, set out this season to identify bargain players by using stats closely associated with winning in the Premier League, high among them, chance creation. But they didn't do a good job of verifying the stats with reality - they paid attention only to the raw numbers of chances created, not to the quality, which are best spotted the old-fashioned way, with eyes and brain. Or perhaps they plugged the chance creators into an offense that doesn't suit them. Either way, they now have an offense that creates tons of average-to-lousy chances. That's the main difference between Carroll at Newcastle and Carroll at Liverpool.

3. Newcastle and Arsenal, on the other hand, have identified the right quality in their strikers, shot accuracy, and the right quality in their supporting players, the ability to create good chances.

That's why Newcastle and Arsenal come into Monday's match with the league's two best sharpshooters - who have put their clubs in stronger contention for Europe, at least so far, than Liverpool and its failing £35 million bet on Andy Carroll.

Ashley's Plan Coming Together

The anti-Mike Ashley brigade has often said that they don't root for a bank account, so Newcastle United's financial progress isn't their main concern. I understand that sentiment to a certain degree - we all got interested in soccer because of the game itself - but it's still naive.

I enjoy seeing positive financial results for the simple fact that they ensure that the club will be around for the foreseeable future. Thursday's release of Newcastle's accounts for 2010-11 confirmed what we had all expected - the club is close to breaking even financially for the first time in a long while, thanks in large part to the sale of a certain pony-tailed No. 9.

But Andy Carroll shouldn't steal the spotlight from Mike Ashley and Derek Llambias on this one. United's owner and managing director have stuck to their plan over the past two seasons, even when it's seemed a bit stubborn. The wage bill is no longer unsustainable and the transfer fund no longer contains IOUs. Ashley and Llambias have managed to do this while also upgrading the overall talent level of the squad.

Regardless of how this season ends - Europe or no Europe - it's hard to be negative. Newcastle looks from all angles like a club on the rise, both on and off the field. Key players are signing contract extensions - a new deal for Ryan Taylor seems sensible, given his versatility - and United is positioning itself financially to compete at a high level on a consistent basis. That may entail selling standout players for profits, but the Carroll deal didn't turn out too badly, did it?

Don't forget that bigger picture, even if this season doesn't end on a high.