Monday’s match at Emirates Stadium between Newcastle United and Arsenal is notable because it features the Premier League’s top two sharpshooters. Demba Ba and Robin Van Persie have been first and second among the league’s chance converters all season, though Ba has slipped below the blistering 30-percent-plus pace he was maintaining before his African Cup of Nations sojourn, allowing Van Persie within striking distance (so to speak) of the category.
As we’ve written before, Ba’s ability to attract and convert chances appears to be the main factor in Newcastle United standing higher on the league table than in most statistical categories. Arsenal, meanwhile, has been lower on the table for much of the season than its statistical profile despite Van Persie’s marksmanship. Which begs what for me is one of soccer's most fascinating questions: Do great strikers make great teams, or do great teams make great strikers?
From watching the sport, I've always felt that strikers, as a whole, are overrated: Most strikers get about what their teams give them. At transfer season, when my co-blogger Tom posts his phenomenal Building a Better Newcastle guides, in watching the video highlights he chooses it strikes me (so to speak) how many of the strikers' goals seem like easy finishes. Yes, a striker has to be in the right place at the right time, and that's a talent not easily spotted by the naked eye. But I don't think it's as rare a talent as it takes to generate the chance. My hunch is only a small minority of elite strikers reap better than what their teams sow for them, a minority that includes Van Persie and Ba.
With the Arsenal match looming I decided to look at some statistics to see if they back up my hunch. Sure enough, few strikers convert chances at a notably higher rate than their teams as a whole. But Van Persie and Ba do. Arsenal overall is converting 16 percent of its chances, third in the league; Van Persie is knocking in 26 percent. Newcastle is fourth in the league at 15 percent chance conversion; Ba is at 27 percent. The league average is around 13 percent, which tells you how astounding these two snipers are at finding the back of the net. (And by the way, Papiss Cisse has broken out in the Premier League better than either Ba or Van Persie at converting chances: 29 percent so far. He needs more opportunities.)
So what makes a great sniper? What part of scoring does the striker control, and what part does the team control? From what the numbers seem to say, the striker's main responsibility, quite simply, is to put the ball on goal. Whether it goes in is more a function of the quality of the chance, over which the striker appears to have less control. The elite strikers have high and consistent shot accuracy from year to year and club to club. But their conversion rates, while higher than their teams' as a whole, seem to vary more according to which club they're on at the time and how well the club is functioning as an entire offense. Consider Ba's numbers last season at West Ham. His shot accuracy, while not quite as scorching as it's been at Newcastle, was close at 54 percent. But his conversion rate, on a club headed toward relegation, was more than 25 percent lower.
Now consider a case that's perhaps even more compelling for Newcastle fans: Andy Carroll. Carroll has never been as accurate a shot-maker as Van Persie or Ba. At Newcastle last season he had 26 shots on target and 34 off (43 percent); so far at Liverpool his accuracy is almost identical, 25 shots on and 34 off. At Newcastle his chance conversion rate was 18 percent, only slightly ahead of his club. At Liverpool his conversion rate is a depressing 8 percent - exactly the same as his team, which sits at the bottom of the Premier League in that category.
Here's what I think.
1. Carroll is an above-standard Premier League striker, but not in the league of Robin Van Persie and Demba Ba - never has been, never will be.
2. By various accounts Liverpool, seduced by the success of statistic-based "moneyball" in American sport, set out this season to identify bargain players by using stats closely associated with winning in the Premier League, high among them, chance creation. But they didn't do a good job of verifying the stats with reality - they paid attention only to the raw numbers of chances created, not to the quality, which are best spotted the old-fashioned way, with eyes and brain. Or perhaps they plugged the chance creators into an offense that doesn't suit them. Either way, they now have an offense that creates tons of average-to-lousy chances. That's the main difference between Carroll at Newcastle and Carroll at Liverpool.
3. Newcastle and Arsenal, on the other hand, have identified the right quality in their strikers, shot accuracy, and the right quality in their supporting players, the ability to create good chances.
That's why Newcastle and Arsenal come into Monday's match with the league's two best sharpshooters - who have put their clubs in stronger contention for Europe, at least so far, than Liverpool and its failing £35 million bet on Andy Carroll.
Great article and an interesting read.
Posted by: JP...from The Rock | 03/11/2012 at 03:22 PM
Wow. What can I say? A good article and blog amid a plague; nay, a horde of chavs. You should see some of our Arsenal blogs. With the exception or Arseblog and 7 a.m. Kick Off (an America), they are embarrassing pretty much.
Posted by: Johnny Massacre | 03/11/2012 at 05:57 PM
A very thought-provoking article.
I must take issue though with the suggestion that Liverpool adopt a Moneyball strategy. I think they're the opposite, and we're the Moneyball club. Rather than do their own research, Liverpool seem very prone to making flavour-of-the-month signings who happen to have received a lot of media attention for various reasons. Carroll was the prime example, but Henderson, Coates, Enrique and Adam can also be cited.
Key to Moneyball is having the courage to think for yourself and trust your own judgement. Liverpool seem to do their scouting on the back pages of newspapers.
Posted by: Rob | 03/13/2012 at 08:25 AM