Derby Could Come Down To Duels

As much as fans on both sides like to distinguish themselves from one another, Newcastle United and Sunderland enter Sunday’s match at St. James’ Park looking eerily similar, particularly since Martin O’Neill took the reins on Wearside in early December. Both clubs are enjoying renaissances in the wake of managerial changes. Both clubs stand higher on the table than in most of the statistical categories normally associated with overall success, largely because both clubs are converting a higher-than-normal percentage of their scoring chances at the front. And both clubs are coming off worrisome performances, Sunderland having been shellacked 4-0 at West Brom, and Newcastle enduring a disappointing draw at home despite fielding their first preferred XI in weeks against relegation-worthy Wolves. In an emotion-charged derby between well-matched clubs, effort in open play can be the difference, and in that department, to win on Sunday Newcastle must excel in two critical areas: duels and tackling. 

As we’ve outlined previously, the ability to win 50-50 duels, particularly on the ground, is one of the best predictors of a Premier League club’s ultimate standing on the table. While conventional wisdom indicates bigger and more physical players win duels, this isn’t borne out by history – the players and teams who win a high percentage of 50-50s are the ones who are better, not necessarily bigger. Unfortunately, Newcastle has been among the poorest clubs in the league at duels this season, facing more 50-50s on the ground than any club and standing a discouraging 17th in percentage won. My co-bloggers and I have had a running chicken-versus-egg debate over whether winning duels is a skill that can be cultivated or simply a badge of pre-existing talent. I have a hunch it comes down to a mix of talent and motivation; perhaps the raucous crowd at St. James’ can play a role in getting Newcastle’s players to the ball a millisecond faster and more decisively than the opponents in this big derby.

Sunderland isn’t setting the world afire in duels either, sitting 11th in the league. But in another facet of open play historically dominated by contending clubs, Sunderland is first in the league by a mile: tackling. As is the case with ground duels, the more physical clubs don’t dominate tackling as one might expect. And so far this season, the tackling chart doesn’t look as much like the league table as in previous years. Regardless, Newcastle will need to be especially strong with the ball at midfield Sunday to generate chances for its snipers and prevent Sunderland from doing the same.

The two sides’ known chance-converters – Ba and Cisse, Larsson and Sessegnon – will likely attract most of the attention from defenders and spectators in what could be a Tyne-Wear classic on Sunday. But the match is likely to be decided in the trenches, minute by minute and duel by duel. 

Comments

[Jaeger]

you can break down the stats all you want, doesn't change the talent levels and all it takes is 1 thing to happen for it to decide the game. just analyze how the players do in the game and the style of play that occurs. results are the only stat that matters and well... we're still higher on the table.