Is Carroll The Problem With Liverpool, Or Vice Versa?

Before the recent Arsenal match, in what has become one of our more heavily read posts, we ran a comparison of Demba Ba, Robin Van Persie and Andy Carroll concluding that Carroll has never been as good at converting chances as shot-making savants like Van Persie and Ba, and he's been hurt additionally at Liverpool by an offense that's built to create lots of chances but not necessarily good ones. Since then I've noticed Newcastle fans tend to fall into two camps on what's happened to Carroll at Liverpool: those who think Carroll is the problem, and those who think Liverpool is the problem. With Carroll's return in red to St. James' Park approaching, the last couple of days I've dug a bit deeper in an effort to see if one camp has a stronger case than the other.

On the side of those who think the team is the problem, the frequency of Carroll's touches, shots and chances have all declined precipitously at Liverpool. When Carroll is in for Liverpool, he's waiting about 20 extra seconds of play for every touch, more than 6 extra minutes for every shot, and nearly 70 extra minutes for every clear-cut chance, defined by Opta as "a situation where a player should reasonably be expected to score, usually in a one-on-one scenario or from very close range." Some of this could be down to the player, but the drop seems too steep not to be at least partly a function of the team and the structure of its play. One might argue Carroll doesn't have as much of the spotlight on a more star-filled club. One might argue back that it's silly to spend £35 million on a striker without making him a centerpiece.

There's also support, though, on the side of those who think Carroll is the problem, that his play has simply dropped off for whatever reason since leaving United. Though Carroll is getting fewer shots at Liverpool, he's getting about the same number of shots inside the box - most of the decline is in longer shots. And of the clear-cut chances Carroll is getting at Liverpool, he's converting a jaw-droppingly low 15 percent, after netting 35 percent at Newcastle. Interestingly, 35 percent is about the league average for converting clear-cut chances – more evidence that Carroll, as a pure shot-maker, has never been in the elite class. At 15 percent he’s near the bottom of the league when presented with an easy scoring chance. In my years following and reporting sports, I’ve learned that when players begin messing up the easier tasks, that’s usually mental, the result of pressure. Which is what a player signs up for when he leaves the relative comfort of home for world-class money and expectations.

So who’s right, those who think Liverpool is hurting Carroll, or Carroll is hurting himself? Everyone is right. There’s little doubt Liverpool could be giving better service to its leading Geordie. There’s also little doubt something bad is going on when someone with Carroll’s skills is beating a lone defender or keeper only 15 percent of the time. It stands to reason neither team nor player is completely to blame. After all, soccer is a team sport – maybe the quintessential team sport – and very little happens in an individual vacuum. Or, to put it as a Liverpool fan might: You never suck alone.

Comments

[Liam Craddock]

recent stats posted on twitter showed in last 7 games where Carroll has started LFC have WWDWDWW. without Carroll DDLLLLL. Contribution to the team maybe more than just the scoring goals even if it os not necessarily him specificaly getting the assist.

May sound silly but if he got his head shaved he's strike more fear into defences as he'd look like a thug who was after getting after defences.

[Filip]

I'm Liverpool fan, and i feel a little bit sorry for Carroll. He didn't ask for 35mil price tag. He was doing fine in Newcastle, started to play for England, he was happy. I hate when he's playing and we are attacking through the middle almost all the time. This is not his style of play. We have Adam, the best set-piece taker in previous season, but now, he's taking corners like he have one leg. Downing was the most consistent and best player in Villa, but now he can't get an assist. It's not his fault if his teammates doesn't know how to cross the f**king ball at least once a game! When he start a game, we win. It doesn't matter if he doesn't score, he'll get better, and he gets batter, but then in the last 4-5 games he didn't start. Anyone know why? Nobody does. Liverpool shouldn't change their game style because of him and play long balls all the time, but they need to adapt game plan (or tactics) to him a little bit. Oh, yeah, and they need to learn how score from corners ffs (they have 15 corners in game)! There's also a problem in his head right now, but cross the ball fine, and he'll score. I remember i watched on YT clips where he played for Newcastle and thought, wow i want THAT Carroll to play for LFC... It will be crazy to sell him in summer, give him a chance, play him regularly... btw, nice signings (cabaye, cisse, ba), i wish we have the people who know how to do their jobs in buying players...
My prediction for tomorrow, 3-1...
Sorry if my English is bad...

[Bob]

That's interesting, Liam. I think all three of us here on the blog think Andy Carroll is a really good player, and his contributions go beyond burying chances. Imagine the impact he might be having on Liverpool if he were converting at even an average rate.

Welcome, Filip, interesting post. "Away" fans always welcome here. And there's nothing wrong with your English.