By The Numbers: Cisse and Ben Arfa, or Man City Stars?

With Wednesday's pair of jaw-dropping strikes, Papiss Cisse kept Newcastle's hopes of Champions League football alive. It has been remarkable to see the club shake off doubters and poor performances, and come up with crucial wins, all season long. The victory against Chelsea illustrates a major reason why Newcastle has been so successful. Alan Pardew is able to call on world-class players to pull a result out of a difficult situation. Without the brilliance of Cisse, a great defensive performance could well have been wasted.

Last month against Bolton, Hatem Ben Arfa provided a similar timely bit of magic. The team performance was much weaker that day, but Ben Arfa's scything run earned the three points in a game that looked destined for 0-0. None of the teams outside the Champions League hunt have the individual skill to rescue a game in that way.

But what about the league's best teams? In watching the Manchester derby, I wondered if Newcastle would be better off with Cisse and Ben Arfa, or the high-priced attackers roaming the Etihad Monday night. With Manchester City making its way to St. James' Park for the final home game of the season, it's worth comparing the Newcastle star pair to their City counterparts.

Let's start with Cisse and the Argentine strike partnership of Sergio Aguero and Carlos Tevez:

All three players shoot at roughly the same rate. But Cisse's finishing has seemed supernatural at times, with Wednesday night being a perfect example. Earlier in the year, we marveled at Demba Ba's efficiency in front of goal. At that time, he was scoring with 27% of his shots, a similar rate to the City duo. Cisse has been far better, with a chance conversion rate that defies logic. His ability to strike the ball on the volley with either foot, before defenders are able to react, and stick those shots in the corner of the goal, is unlike anyone else in the league - and maybe even in the world.

Where Cisse falls a bit short is in bringing his teammates into play. He and Ba are still getting their wires crossed at times, resulting in a few misplaced passes. That's an area where Aguero and Tevez have excelled. Aguero's seven assists are more than any player on Newcastle this year, and Tevez has created a pile of chances for City when he has bothered to play. Cisse will likely improve his passing numbers as he gets accustomed to his teammates, but Aguero and Tevez are superb creators as well as scorers.

And here's how Ben Arfa has fared this year compared to City's tricksters David Silva and Samir Nasri: 
Ben Arfa is not afraid to take risks, and it shows in the statistics. While all three players have found themselves in a similar wing forward role for much of the year, Ben Arfa has seized opportunities to score far more often. His dribbling tricks inspire weekly YouTube compilations from devoted fans, but also mean that he turns the ball over at a higher rate. Ben Arfa has been a better chance creator since Pardew put him in a forward line with Ba and Cisse. But City's forwards and midfielders have been lining up around the 18-yard box all season long, giving Silva and Nasri plenty of teammates to tee up for a shot. 

The most staggering aspect of Ben Arfa's play the last few weeks may actually be his defensive work. Pardew held Ben Arfa out of the lineup for most of the season because he had failed to impress with his work rate. But he worked extremely hard against Chelsea in a more withdrawn role, tracking the overlapping runs of Ryan Bertrand all the way to the corner flag. Flair players usually shirk that sort of responsibility.

So would Newcastle be better off in a forward swap with City? It really depends what sort of player you want in the front line. But the fact that we can even have this discussion, comparing Tyneside's penny-pinchers to the sovereign state in charge of Manchester City, says a lot about how well the team has played this season. Wins over both Manchester clubs at St. James' Park would be a fitting end to an incredible year.

Comments

[tublu]

the tension is building, the geordies are getting all worked up about the chumps league and man city fans have run out of nails to knaw.
Looking forward to the game (more nervous than before mondays light workout against trafford) but I have to ask, in all the pre-match hyperbole I've seen you stripey guys seem to have removed the Wigan match from your collective memory.... wtf happened there ? and if you play like that again what will the score be ?

[Steven]

Thats a fair comment... But this is the toon we live with it thats why we love the club

Historically its always been there and going forward will continue to be... But I spoke with a City fan going down to Wigan on the train and he said the same would happen City would beat Utd then come unstuck against the toon.

Point being the make up of both teams has and will probably continue to be the same.

PS Lets hope you guys play like you did against Arsenal or have you forgotten that game?

PPS Whats your away record for 2012?

One thing it will be a great game (Prob not now) both teams will have to play well to win

[John]

Tublu,

nice try at a wind up. Nobody is trying to remove anything, it happened, we move on, and we beat Chelsea at Stamford Bridge.

What happened at wigan? they played inspired for 45, thats what. They scored two fantastic goals and used the ball brilliantly

They have also beaten Man Utd and Arsenal (should have Chelsea as well) so its not like they are an easy game for anyone at the moment.

They scored two fantastic goals and used the ball brilliantly all first half. We were the better team in the second half, kept heads held high, and were uinlucky not to score 2 or 3 ourselves

Those 4 goals are the only 4 Newcastle have conceeded in 8 Matches (720 minutes of football) and we have won every other game in that period as well as not conceedeing. 21 pts from 24.

Tough game but one we can go into with confidence.

[Matt]

I didn't really see Tublu's post as a windup. Think the City fans are feeling the same way we are. There's a lot at stake on Sunday, we've both seen fantastic wins from our teams this week, and we're all really excited and really nervous. I do think that in general, other teams' supporters don't give the defense enough credit. They see Wigan, or Fulham, or Spurs, and glide right over the 15 clean sheets.

Plenty of great players on both sides, it should be a stellar game. Can't wait.

[Dave]

Hey, you guys still doing the podcast? Its been a few days since the last one, was wondering. Cheers.