I Wish I Was A Geordie - The Blog of Newcastle United in the US

Gameiro's Second Chance? Thanks, But No Thanks

Right fit, right time.

A year ago, that's what Kevin Gameiro would have been for Newcastle United. With £35 million in its back pocket, Newcastle was searching for an out-and-out No. 9, a goalscorer who would fill the void left by Andy Carroll. Gameiro had proven himself to be exactly that at Lorient in France's Ligue 1, and looked primed for a big move.

But Gameiro, determined to stay in France, opted to join newly wealthy Paris Saint-Germain. Now, after scoring 11 goals in 34 Ligue 1 games for PSG, he finds himself in search of a new club, with The Journal reporting that the 25-year-old has been offered to Newcastle.

Wrong fit, wrong time.

Newcastle may very well be in the market for a frontline striker should Demba Ba decide to seek greener pastures. But Gameiro is a finisher in the mold of Papiss Cisse, and it's hard to see how they'd function together. With Peter Lovenkrands - and potentially Leon Best - exiting this summer, Newcastle could use depth up front, but buying another poacher wouldn't make much sense. Particularly one who wasn't interested in the Premier League in the first place.

In Tuesday's other Newcastle transfer news - again courtesy of The Journal's Mark Douglas - Montpellier center back Mapou Yanga-Mbiwa's agent claims that his client will likely move to a German club this summer.

"We haven't talked to Newcastle," Tim Hagar told The Journal. "It is not true that there has been an approach and he won't go to Newcastle. I don't know where he will be going but we have interested clubs in Germany.

"I think he will go to Germany – I don't know why Newcastle haven't followed up their interest."

This does have the sound of an agent trying to drum up interest in his client. Keep in mind, though, that Alan Pardew stressed his desire to bring in a center back who would offer Newcastle a goal threat on set pieces, and Yanga-Mbiwa, for all his impressive qualities, scored just once for Montpellier last season.

*We've also updated our summer transfer window guide to include Gael Bigirimana, the 18-year-old Coventry City defensive midfielder who is reportedly the subject of a bid from Newcastle.

Exploring Newcastle's Formula For Victory

As Bob pointed out on the blog yesterday, Newcastle has put together a winning formula that seems to defy statistical explanation. We waxed poetic about the closing stretch that pushed the club into the Europa League. But a variety of key figures taken before and after the White Hart Lane debacle showed virtually no change.

Alan Pardew appears to have spun gold from straw - to take a club with midtable metrics a whisker away from the Champions League. Or has he? Let's scout our own team, blending the numbers with our own observations to make sense of Newcastle's winning ways.

We'll ignore the poor games for this discussion, because the real mystery that Bob found is that Newcastle wins a lot for a team which looks so shaky on paper. Seven of the last 13 games were victories. In six of those seven, Newcastle scored in the first 20 minutes of the match. (The one exception was Hatem Ben Arfa's gem against Bolton.)

With scoring a rarity in soccer, it's not too shocking that teams do better when they score first. But largely thanks to Papiss Cissé, Newcastle regularly put its opponents in an early hole. For a relatively conservative manager like Pardew, that meant an opportunity to pull players back, relying on stout defense and an excellent goalkeeper.

Let's take the Chelsea match as an example of Pardew's approach. As scripted, Cissé gave Newcastle an early lead with a typically sensational strike. But that was not a one-off moment. Demba Ba had a pair of chances right before halftime, and the team peppered Petr Cech's net with 11 first-half shots on goal (per ESPN, as EPL Index doesn't break shots down by half). If you had turned the match off at halftime, the 2-0 final score would not have been shocking in the least. Chelsea looked as toothless as an eventual Champions League winner can look.

In the second half, and especially after Cheick Tioté came off injured, Chelsea dominated the game by any statistical measure you can find. By game's end, the Blues had managed 63.4% of the possession, and completed more than twice as many passes as Newcastle did. But thanks to a strong defensive performance around the 18-yard box, and an alert clearance by Davide Santon, Chelsea failed to score.  Cissé's goal of the season was practically the only time the visitors touched the ball in the marathon 10 minutes of stoppage time. In a sign of what Pardew was thinking, he suggested the striker probably should have dribbled the ball into the corner to kill time.

And that match wasn't a fluke. It happened too much throughout the final stretch to be anything but tactical. Newcastle scored the sixth-most goals in the Premier League without ever scoring more than three in a game. Not that there weren't chances to go for more.

Stoke put up a truly woeful performance at St. James' Park in March, but rather than pushing a 3-0 lead, Pardew brought on James Perch to shore up the defense. Similarly, Cissé had already been pulled against Liverpool when old friend José Enrique donned the keeper's kit.  Cissé and Ben Arfa also found seats on the bench for the last 15 minutes of the 3-1 win against West Brom. In Pardew's mind, the job was done from an offensive standpoint. 

In other words, Pardew didn't send Newcastle out to play a passive, counterattacking style, as the numbers would suggest. He simply played the situation. Buoyed by early goals, the team opted for a more defensive approach to the second half. In the process, the opposition racked up plenty of possession and passing - but usually left with a loss.

Newcastle's Unique Way Of Winning

Two-thirds of the way through the just-concluded season, we ran a Moneyball-inspired post aiming to identify the statistical categories most associated with success in the Premier League, and ranking Newcastle United in those categories in an attempt to determine if the club's high standing on the league table was for real or a fluke. At the time the club stood 6th on the league table, but below that in all the key non-goalkeeping statistical categories, leading us to conclude that Newcastle was an improving squad but heavily dependent on the markmanship of Demba Ba and the steady presence of Tim Krul.

What happened after that was the emergence of another supernatural scorer, Papiss Cissé, and a thrilling season-ending run that included six consecutive victories, a 5th-place finish and a spot in the Europa League. Thanks to our friends at EPL Index, we've just finished coding in the final Premier League numbers, fully expecting to find that Newcastle improved on the stat chart as well as the pitch over the final third of the season.

Not so. In fact, the numbers, by and large, got worse. While Newcastle did score more goals in the homestretch, rising from 8th to 5th in the league, the club did so despite slipping nearer the bottom of the league in possession and chances, and improving only from 14th to 12th in the other statistic, shots on target, that appears to govern scoring and goal difference. In the half-dozen stats at the foundation of our statistical pyramid, only in interceptions did Newcastle improve as the season wound down.

So what's going on? Here are some guesses.

- The statistics don't mean anything. Maybe. But why would they be "right" for the other 19 clubs and "wrong" for Newcastle? Newcastle did play some strange matches down the stretch, notably the victory at Swansea on two Cissé lightning-strikes despite only 23 percent possession, and a home derby in which Newcastle dominated absurdly (51 accurate crosses to Sunderland's 14, for example) but needed a late Sholamiracle to salvage a 1-1 draw. But those odd outings shouldn't be enough to mess up an entire season's worth of statistics, especially when matches like the two just mentioned ought to cancel each other out.

- Newcastle is a fluke, not "for real." Maybe. But we prefer not to believe that, obviously, and it doesn't jibe with what the naked eye can see, with the way Newcastle was able to control matches, particularly later in the season.

- Newcastle is an average club with tremendous striker production. There may be some truth in this, but it doesn't seem to tell the whole story. The statistics paint a picture of a club that sits back, survives onslaught after onslaught, then makes a big interception or tackle and stings with remarkable precision on the counterattack. Again, though, that picture doesn't really match what we see in real time. Newcastle was lethal on more than the counter this season.

- Newcastle is a good club that succeeds in a way that isn't "normal" for the Premier League. To us this is the best, almost inescapable, conclusion. It's harder to say exactly what that way is, but the statistics hold plenty of clues. Clearly this is an offense that is unusually high-percentage when it has the ball, that creates quality chances not necessarily in raw numbers, but in large proportion to its relatively low number and duration of possessions, then converts those chances at an astounding rate - the anti-model of an Arsenal that dominates via passing and possession. The defense isn't awe-inspiring, but serviceable, especially at taking the ball from the opposition. And when all else fails, the goalkeeper is capable of saving the day.

Plenty has been written and said about the unique skill with which Newcastle's club has been assembled, emphasizing scouting and value in contrast to finding the richest owner possible, buying high-priced players in quantity and writing off the mistakes until what's left is a winning squad. Perhaps equal attention is due for the unique manner in which Newcastle is succeeding not just in acquiring players, but also in deploying them after they arrive.

Pardew Plays It Safe - And He's Right

It's funny how quickly expectations can rise. At the beginning of last season, a good segment of Newcastle United fans would have been happy with a campaign that didn't involve a relegation fight.

Now, after Newcastle missed out on a Champions League berth by just five points, a good chunk of those same fans will be expecting a similar showing next season. Which is why Alan Pardew has already begun the process of managing expectations.

"I'm hoping that I will educate our fans for next season," Pardew told the London Evening Standard in an interview that was published Tuesday. "If they think we can finish fifth with a European campaign and the finances we've got, it's impossible. I honestly believe that you need to be a bit more open with the fans. The problem some managers have is they're not open enough."

"... This year, I'm sure we'll say something like, 'We're looking for a top-eight finish, hopefully attack one of the cups and have a great run in Europe.' I wouldn't say we couldn't challenge for the top six if we got knocked out of Europe. Then we wouldn't have those extra 13 games."

Sure, those quotes might be a bit of a buzzkill for some fans who are dreaming of seeing Newcastle back in the Champions League. Impossible might be too strong of a word, but Pardew is right to take a pragmatic approach. The overall quality of Newcastle's squad simply isn't yet at the point where it can handle a European campaign while also battling it out for a top-five Premier League finish. As fun as it will be to see Newcastle back in Europe, the Europa League is a long and arduous competition that involves lengthy travel and schedule congestion. Success in Europe will almost assuredly take a toll on United's Premier League performance.

Newcastle figures to improve its roster this summer, both in terms of depth and quality - a process that kicked off Wednesday with confirmation that French midfielder Romain Amalfitano will join the club July 1 - but Mike Ashley isn't going to sanction a major spending spree. It's all part of the slow and steady plan that Newcastle has adopted over the past two years.

Eventually, Pardew might be able to honestly tell us that the club is aiming for the Champions League. But not yet.

Season In Review: Three Overlooked Early-Season Moments

This season could have been very different. Before the emergence of the 4-3-3, before Hatem Ben Arfa or Papiss Cissé had even started a Premier League match for Newcastle this year, there was a remarkable unbeaten stretch that propelled Newcastle to the top of the table. While mocking analysts disaparaged the club, citing a purportedly easy schedule, this run would lay the foundation for further success in the spring.

Looking back on it now, the first 11 games did have a few slices of good fortune. If these three moments, now buried under the weight of a triumphant campaign, had gone differently, where would Newcastle have finished?

August 20: Fabricio Coloccini avoids injury after gruesome Phil Bardsley tackle

Two members of our podcast panel named the captain their player of the season. Alan Pardew concurrred, calling Coloccini Newcastle's best player, an award with quite a bit of competition this year. While Ryan Taylor received the plaudits for his lethal free kick at the Stadium of Light, Sunderland may still have had the last laugh. Bardsley's ugly 89th-minute challenge on Coloccini earned him a red card, and to this day, I have no idea how the Argentine stalwart walked away from it. A broken leg for Coloccini, especially with Mike Williamson also on the shelf, would likely have ticketed Newcastle for the bottom half this year.

September 24: Demba Ba scores his first goal against Blackburn en route to a hat trick

By January, Ba was being labeled the signing of the season by virtually everyone. Over the summer, however, his shaky start served only to enrage fans still smarting over Newcastle's sale of Andy Carroll in January. As chanting crowds would soon remind us, Ba didn't start scoring until after Ramadan. And his first goal, requiring some deft footwork to turn and free himself for the finish, started a post-holiday run that would produce the bulk of Newcastle's tallies in the first half of the season.

As we have since seen, Ba appears very much to be a confidence player. Had Paul Robinson snuffed out the striker's effort here, would Ba have continued to labor, much as he did at the end of the season? A Leon Best-led strikeforce doesn't exactly carry the same threat as the one that terrorized opponents with Ba, and then Cissé, scoring at will.

November 5: Dan Gosling handball in box goes unnoticed

In the 11th and final match of the unbeaten string, Gosling plagued his former team by using his arm to deflect a shot from Louis Saha wide of the net. Newcastle thrived most of the season by taking three points against teams in the middle and bottom of the table. A draw or loss against then-struggling Everton may have planted a seed of doubt in Pardew and his squad, which could easily have spiraled out of control. After the match against Everton, two trips to Manchester and a home date against Chelsea followed in rapid succession. But referee Andre Marriner failed to spot the infraction, Newcastle won 2-1, and a still-defiant side hung onto a brave draw at Old Trafford two games later. 

My co-blogger Bob has been engaged in a season-long project to help explain what makes clubs win consistently. Early in the season, Newcastle's metrics were mostly mid-table, but a few good breaks helped develop the team into the dangerous outfit it is today. With a system that seems to work, and summer reinforcements seemingly on the way, let's hope that good fortune won't be needed to keep the club high in the table, and progressing deep in the Europa League.

Summer (Transfer) Heat: Expect A Slow Burn

In a dream world, Newcastle United would have moves for Douglas and Mathieu Debuchy wrapped up early in the summer. We could enjoy the weather and avoid another couple months of being glued to our computers for transfer news.

Alas, it never seems to work that way, does it? And with Euro 2012 set to run from June 8 to July 1, progress figures to be even slower this year. Why would Lille sell Debuchy, its in-demand right back, before he gets the chance to show off his skills for France? Any player who will be competing in Poland and Ukraine next month likely won't be moving until the tournament's conclusion. And, as we all know, there tends to be a domino effect in the transfer market.

Newcastle's efforts to sign Douglas - a deal that's been rumored all season - have slowed because of questions about his contract and obnoxious agents, according to a report in The Journal this week. It's still a deal that makes a lot of sense, so it would be surprising if United wasn't willing to play the long game to land the hulking Brazilian-born Dutchman.

So here we are, staring down another summer of speculation and hearsay. Luckily, we've recently updated our summer transfer guide, which will give you the lowdown on Newcastle's rumored targets (the top graphic stinks, but we'll have a new one up soon).

Let the insanity begin ...

Newcastle's Europa League Adventure Explained

After a truly unforgettable season, Newcastle United finds itself in the Europa League. For fans like me, who have never had the privilege of seeing the club in Europe, there are plenty of questions. In our last podcast, I gave listeners a quick Europa explainer. But in case you missed it, here's a handy roadmap for our upcoming European adventure. 

Is Newcastle in the Europa League group stage?

No. And it makes no difference whether Chelsea or Bayern Munich wins the Champions League final on Saturday. England has three Europa League slots: one for the group stage, one for the playoff round, and one for the third qualifying round. Group stage qualification is reserved for the FA Cup winner - that'd be Chelsea. If Chelsea wins on Saturday, Tottenham will take Chelsea's place in the Europa group stage. Newcastle is locked into the playoff round, the final qualifying round before the group stages. Liverpool, by winning the Carling Cup, will be England's earliest entrant into the competition, one round before Newcastle.

When is the draw for the playoff round, and when are the matches?

The draw for the playoff round will be on Friday, August 10, with matches on August 23 and 30. 

What sort of team can Newcastle expect to play in the playoff round?

There are plenty of fashionable teams swirling around the early Europa rounds next season, like Inter Milan, Marseille, and PSV. That has both intrigued and worried fans thinking about a glamour matchup for Newcastle in its European return.

The playoff round is seeded based on performance in European competitions over the last five seasons. The top half of the teams are placed in matchups with the bottom half teams. You would imagine this to be a problem for Newcastle, given that its most recent European foray just misses the cut. However, teams in this position get their seeding coefficient through the strength of the league. This was enough to put Birmingham City and Stoke into favorable fixtures this season.

However, there is one change to the Europa League format next season. This is the first year that teams such as Chelsea are going straight into the group stage. This may be helpful from a seeding perspective. Had those teams competed with Newcastle for spots in the playoff round, almost all would have been placed higher, pushing the club closer to the cutoff point where difficult matchups are likely. So Newcastle will almost certainly be favored to make it to the group stage. Of course, we know better than anyone that unexpected setbacks are always a possibility.

Where can I actually watch these Europa League matches, anyway?

We're in luck! As our podcast guest Barry Ameobi alluded to on Sunday, the Europa League has been televised on DirecTV for quite a while. Those of us stuck with cable have mostly been scouring the Internet for shoddy foreign streams. But for the coming season, our old friends Fox have been awarded Europa League rights in the US. Get your e-mail fingers ready, though, because Fox only gets one live match per kickoff slot. So we may need to give them a bit of a nudge to get them to show the Toon, if you get my drift.

What is the Europa League, and what's Newcastle's history with it?

The Europa League was only created in 2009, so obviously Newcastle has not yet appeared in it. But its prior incarnation, the UEFA Cup, has been the stage for most of the club's continental excursions. An even earlier version of the competition, the Inter-Cities Fairs Cup, was the last major trophy to grace Tyneside, after Newcastle topped Hungarian side Ujpest in the 1969 final.

More recently, Newcastle advanced past the UEFA Cup group stages in 2005 and 2007, playing European football into March and April. That's quite an entertaining dream at the moment. We'll see if our club decides to make it real in the season to come.

A Love Letter To Newcastle United And Its Fans

In a flash, the most remarkable season of my short time as a Newcastle United supporter is over. Unlike most of you, our readers, the three of us are not woven into the fabric of the club. We come from far away, with no ties to Tyneside, no reason to breathe black and white. But we do.

Newcastle was relegated in the second season I followed the club. That could so easily have been it. After all, it was total turmoil in the months before and after the drop. To think that I was cheering for a group of overpaid mercenaries managed by a madman - and that the future looked even worse! But like all of you, we stuck it out through the Championship. For the club, and for us, it was actually quite a relief. We looked forward to wins. We had a likable group of players and manager. And at year’s end, we were back where we belonged.

After last year provided its own healthy dose of drama, no one really knew what to expect come August. The myopic sports media predicted doom. The three of us thought otherwise, but there’s quite a chasm between a top-ten finish and the dizzying height we find ourselves at today, with the potential for even more magic to come. Just ask Liverpool.

Then at midseason, I was invited to join this site, and it honestly felt like coming home. While I almost always watch the matches by myself, in truth I’m never really alone. Our readers and podcast listeners, as well as the wider community of Newcastle United supporters, have turned every matchday into a global celebration. Last Sunday’s game against Manchester City cemented that feeling for me. The game was so tense, and I could feel that shared tension and nervous excitement as we watched a brave but ultimately fruitless effort.

All season, I’ve commented on Twitter about how incredible St. James’ Park has sounded on TV. Hearing the crowd last week intimidate the City players as they swarmed the goal, and salute the team during the lap of honor, has turned going to a match from a dream in the indeterminate future to a requirement next season. I know Bob has expressed similar thoughts, as have several of the other American fans we talk to. So look out Tyneside, the Yanks are coming!

To all of you who read the blog, listen to our podcasts, and converse with us on Twitter, thank you for fleshing out my experience with this amazing club. On the off chance anyone associated with Newcastle United reads this, thank you for all of the enjoyment your club has given me this season.

And I hope that just as Newcastle has raised its level over the past season, we will continue to raise our own, with sharper analysis and better writing to match. Over the summer break, we’ll continue to give you transfer information, follow Newcastle players and potential targets at Euro 2012, and the like. There may be a couple more surprises this summer as well, so stay tuned to the blog and Twitter feed.

Thanks again to everyone for having made this an absolutely incredible year. Howay the lads!

On The Air: Europa Dreams And A Floridie Geordie

On a special end-of-the-season podcast, the three boys of the blog welcome their first-ever podcast guest, the inimitable Barry Ameobi a.k.a. @ToonArmyMIA, for a look back at the season and a look forward at the Europa League, including who Newcastle could be playing, when it'll happen and what it means. Plus our players of the season, Pards, Joop and lots more scoop. Click below to listen, or visit our iTunes page to download and subscribe.

 

I Wish I Was A Geordie Podcast 6

 

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