I Wish I Was A Geordie - The Blog of Newcastle United in the US

The Carroll Question: Deal Or No Deal?

It's more obvious than ever that Liverpool badly wants to sell Andy Carroll.

Whether Newcastle United will make an acceptable offer for the big striker, though, is as foggy as ever at this point.

Alan Pardew wouldn't offer a definitive update in Wednesday's press conference ahead of today's Europa League qualifier against Atromitos, first saying a return for Carroll didn't look possible before refusing to rule it out. Tricky, tricky.

We know by now not to live and die by what Pardew tells the media, particularly after he claimed Newcastle wouldn't sign a striker last January in the wake of a failed move for Modibo Maiga. Sure enough, Papiss Cisse arrived a few weeks later. Not to mention Pardew's assertions that Carroll wouldn't be sold in the first place.

That United is broadcasting a relaxed message - Pardew has repeatedly said he's fine with his squad as is - as the hours count down to the transfer deadline shouldn't come as a surprise, either. Even if Newcastle's hierarchy badly wants to re-sign Carroll, it certainly won't admit as much.

Mike Ashley and Derek Llambias love themselves some gambling, and this qualifies as a high-stakes game. Remember, Llambias is the man who claimed he told Liverpool to F*** off! and slammed the phone down when the Reds offered £30 million for Carroll on that fateful day. Would it really surprise you if Llambias was waiting for a similar desperate phone call from Anfield on Friday, should Liverpool need to free up funds to sign Clint Dempsey or Theo Walcott?

Only one thing is certain at this point: You'd be a fool to claim to know what's going to happen with Carroll.

UPDATE: Carroll joined West Ham United on a season-long loan on Thursday. West Ham is reportedly paying all of Carroll's hefty wages this season, and the London club also has the option to make the deal permanent after the season. In the end, then, it would appear that Newcastle wanted Carroll, but not quite as bad as West Ham did.

Liverpool no doubt was partial to any deal that didn't involve Carroll returning to Tyneside, too, which clearly didn't help Newcastle's efforts to land the big Geordie striker. And, given how the £35 million deal worked out for the Reds, you can't really blame them.

A Defining Week For Newcastle

We pride ourselves on being relatively level-headed on the blog. This may not be one of those times. We might all look back at this moment and wonder what the fuss was about. But in the here and now, it's hard not to think that this week has become very important indeed.

Neither the draw against Atromitos on Thursday, nor Saturday's loss to Chelsea, is terribly concerning on its own. The early stretch of Newcastle's season was always going to be tough, with short turnaround times and difficult matches to contend with. But those two results have left the club with a week that may define a season, and the club's trajectory going forward.

First comes the second leg of the Europa League qualifier, this Thursday afternoon. With Atromitos forced to travel to St. James' Park, and Newcastle in possession of a precious away goal, it should be a relatively straightforward affair. Last year's FA Cup loss to Brighton, and the defeat to Stevenage the season  before, suggest otherwise.

As much as Alan Pardew has insisted that the Premier League is Newcastle's priority this season, it needs to take a back seat this week. The club fought too hard last season to get to Europe, and it would send a disheartening message to bow out without even playing a first-choice squad. Whoever is available must start against Atromitos. If it means fielding a reserve-laden team against Aston Villa on Sunday, so be it. For Newcastle to continue as a destination for some of Europe's underrated talents, it needs a showcase on the continent. This season, the Europa League is it.

And about that transfer policy, which has once again come under heavy scrutiny this summer - overall, the aim of the club is noble. Mike Ashley and company refuse to overpay for players, especially those in their late-twenties and older. Newcastle's stubbornness in pursuing 27-year-old Mathieu Debuchy reflects this sentiment. I may not agree with the club's apparent valuation of Debuchy, but the principle is sound. 

The main goal of Friday's transfer deadline will be much the same as it was in January: keep going forward without losing any key players. A reliable third striker, a quality third center back, or a starting fullback would be fantastic, as much from a messaging standpoint as anything else. Nonetheless, the squad is deep enough to compete on multiple fronts, especially if some variation of a 4-3-3 is a regular option.

Progress to the group stage of the Europa League, and hang onto star players, and Newcastle has a platform to continue its ascent. There will always be room to ask for more. (Being disappointed with a loss at Stamford Bridge is a start - could you have imagined saying that two years ago?) But none of us tied ourselves to a club like Newcastle expecting guaranteed success. So on we go, anxiously awaiting the match on Thursday. Let's hope the club doesn't hold true to historical form, and disappoint at a most inopportune moment.

A Tale Of Two Trips To The Bridge

Last season's triumph at Stamford Bridge was hailed as an example of the fighting spirit that carried Newcastle United to a fifth-place finish.

Saturday's defeat in West London was seen by many as a poor performance from a side that will be hard pressed to match last season's accomplishments.

I'd argue there wasn't that vast of a difference between the displays. Newcastle may have defended at a higher level back in May, but the main difference between 2-0 and 0-2 was Chelsea's offseason transformation into an attacking force - aka, the arrival of Eden Hazard.

Papiss Cisse's two blockbusters last season covered up for the fact that United only possessed the ball 36.6 percent of the time and completed just 225 of 309 passes (73 percent). This time around, Newcastle possessed the ball 47.5 percent of the time and completed 395 of 451 passes (88 percent). United also had significantly higher passing percentages in the attacking half and final third on Saturday compared to last season.

Each side's chances created don't even tell the story. Newcastle produced eight on Saturday, compared to a surprising seven for Chelsea; last season it was 13-9 in favor of Chelsea. But take a look at the shot statistics: Chelsea put six of its 12 total shots on target (United was 3-for-11), compared to three out of 18 last season (when Newcastle was 4-for-13).

You could argue the cause of that difference was Newcastle's dogged defending back in May, and United's 21 interceptions (compared to 11 on Saturday) speak to that. Or you could attribute that interception total, along with Chelsea's horrid shooting display, to a rather wooden squad.

That's no longer the case after Hazard's arrival. Suddenly Chelsea now looks like a dynamic force going forward, with the young Belgian at the heart of most of its promising play. In last season's matchup, the five Chelsea players with the most touches were its backline and holding midfielder John Obi Mikel; this time Hazard had the third-most touches, just behind Raul Meireles and Mikel.

Last season, Cisse was the player who swung the game in his side's favor. This time it was Hazard.

Newcastle Who? Americans Are Starting To Get It

The photo at right typifies the what-the-hell-is-that reaction I get when I wear my Newcastle United shirt in public here in the US. This was shot at the spur of the moment (no pun intended) by my significant other after Saturday’s match, when we hopped on our bicycles and pedaled to Milwaukee’s Lake Michigan beachfront to celebrate the victory over Tottenham with a couple of tiki-hut margaritas (flimsy cups, no salt, room for improvement). The back of the shirt reads CABAYE, adding another level of perplexity here in Wisconsin, where a former American footballer named Favre has a monopoly on the number 4.

What happened a few minutes later, though, was perhaps more interesting. Another tiki-hut patron, an American male probably in his 20s, popped over to our table to slap a high five. “I’m glad they’re hanging onto Cabaye,” he said. I told him any buyer would have to survive sticker shock first. And with that, I had what I believe is my first Newcastle conversation with an American I didn’t meet through this blog or in a pre-soccerized context like a soccer bar or last summer’s tour.

Earlier in the day, in the English expat-run pub where I watched the match and one that isn't normally frequented by our small local band of Magpies, I sidled up to the bar for a drink, next to a Tottenham supporter, an American. He eyed my shirt sideways, gave an acid grin and said, “You've got to be kidding." As if Newcastle having American fans was a long-dreaded, finally materialized sign of the apocalypse. I commented later from our blog tweet, “One of these days some fan in a US pub is going to see my NUFC shirt and call me a bandwagon jumper. Then we'll have arrived.”

It’s happening. While the total audience is still small compared to the major American sports, soccer is the fastest-growing sport on US television. The Premier League is gaining too many American fans too fast to divide between just five clubs. I wrote after last summer’s tour that the distinctive kits, the brown ale-fueled familiarity of the name, and the unequaled passion of the existing fans make Newcastle an attractive alternative to the so-called big clubs in the US. Now there’s the sudden and vast improvement in the club itself. For Americans, Newcastle United is crashing the party at just the right time.

Tioté Again Important Against Spurs

Three minutes into Saturday's match, Cheick Tioté made a trademark authoritative tackle on Kyle Walker and collapsed in a heap. Though Vurnon Anita looked ready to make an extremely premature debut, Tioté shook off the injury and lasted the full 90 minutes. And once again, Newcastle's midfield enforcer left his mark in a game against another top club.

Tottenham fans derided my post from February, in which I claimed that Tioté's absence was a major factor in the 5-0 rout at White Hart Lane. In that match, Danny Guthrie and James Perch were unable to prevent the Spurs midfield from running riot in north London. But with Yohan Cabaye looking well off the pace, Tioté stepped into an expanded midfield role on Saturday, and neutralized Sandro, Jake Livermore, and Gylfi Sigurdsson in the center of the park.

The last three meetings between Newcastle and Tottenham paint an interesting picture. Last October, in the 2-2 draw at St. James' Park, Tioté controlled the midfield. He touched the ball more than any other player on the field, and completed more passes than any other player as well. In February, he was at the Africa Cup of Nations, and Newcastle served up its worst performance of the season. On Saturday, despite some shaky moments, his 96 touches again led all players by a sizable margin, as did his 67 for 81 passing (83%). 

In fact, because of Cabaye's struggles, Tioté operated as the most advanced of Newcastle's three midfielders in the second half. His 21 pass attempts in the final third of the field were more than double any other player in black and white. One of the keys to possession football is bridging the gap between the midfield and strikers, and Tioté stepped up into that position, though his passing and shooting were wayward at times.

Defensively, Tioté offered his typical sturdy performance. Spurs tended to bypass the midfield in attack, opting for long diagonal passes to Aaron Lennon and Gareth Bale, probably to avoid running headlong into a strong tackle. Having a deterrent in the center of the park can only help to stifle opposing attacks and spark Newcastle's own.

For Newcastle to turn possession into more scoring chances, Cabaye will need to be more effective in the coming weeks. But on Saturday, Tioté's willingness to set the tempo was enough to take the sting out of Spurs in the second half. It was one more encouraging sign that this year's team will try to exert control of matches through the midfield, playing like a club that expects to be a fixture at the top of the table. 

Newcastle-Spurs, The Morning After

Opinions can't be based solely on one match, particularly a season opener.

But here are a few of the thoughts bubbling through my head the morning after Newcastle's 2012-13 debut, a 2-1 win over Spurs:

• We may have all overstated the need for another center back. I went into yesterday believing Newcastle would be crazy not to sign a central defender before the end of August. I still think United should add one, but I'm not as convinced that's it's a must addition after seeing the display James Perch put forth. He didn't misplace a pass - 46-for-46, while partner Steven Taylor was 39-for-40 - and his mobility was an asset at the back. That said, Jermain Defoe playing alone up top may not have provided the most definitive examination. If Taylor stays healthy - always a big if - Newcastle might be OK with Perch as its fourth center back.

• Jonas Gutierrez will find a way into the lineup more often than not. Jonas' passing numbers (27-for-34) weren't necessarily spectacular and he didn't create any scoring chances (his late long-range shot was an easy save for any goalkeeper), but he was my clear-cut man of the match. His work rate and adaptability allowed Alan Pardew to alter his formation on the fly. As usual, he was dogged in tracking back and closing players down and he was a constant outlet to relieve pressure. Vurnon Anita will push for a place in the lineup, but we shouldn't count out Jonas just yet.

• Newcastle's ability to retain possession isn't good enough in a 4-4-2 formation. Newcastle and Spurs appear to be pretty evenly matched at this point, which probably contributed to the general raggedness of yesterday's match. But United also showed a disturbing inability to retain possession and build anything with it while operating out of a 4-4-2 look in the first half. Newcastle ended up winning the possession battle (52-48) and outpassed Spurs by volume (329-for-404 vs. 308-for-371) after Pardew pushed Jonas into a more central position and pulled Demba Ba back to the left. But United's possession play still looked like a work in progress: 66.6 percent of its completed passes were in its own half, while Spurs completed 51.9 percent of its passes in the attacking half.

• Davide Santon at left back can be frustratingly predictable. Erik Pieters was spotted in the stands; whether the Dutch left back was in attendance to merely watch pals Tim Krul and Anita play or to discuss a move to Tyneside is unclear at this point. Either way, I'm more convinced than ever that Newcastle should scrap a move for Mathieu Debuchy and land a left-footed left back. It's not that Santon played poorly. But time after time, he ventured forward, only to cut inside to get the ball on his natural foot. There was no threat of a cross from the byline. That problem could be solved by introducing Sylvain Marveaux to the lineup, but that would have to come at the expense of another midfielder. The better option at this point seems like signing a left back and allowing Santon to compete with Danny Simpson - who played fairly well yesterday, all in all - on the right side.

Where Does Anita Fit In?

At long last, Vurnon Anita is officially a Newcastle United player.

Now comes the fun part: Seeing exactly where the Dutchman fits into Alan Pardew's team.

Pardew has made it clear that, while Anita has the capability of filling in at left back, he sees his new signing as a central midfielder. Anita clearly shares that view, which is why he sought assurances from Newcastle before signing a five-year contract.

That United's first major signing of the summer - all apologies to Romain Amalfitano, Gael Bigirimana and Curtis Good - would be a central midfielder who likes to sit deep is fairly surprising on first glance, given the esteem in which Yohan Cabaye and Cheick Tiote are held. There is always the caveat that players get injured or struggle for form throughout the course of a given season, particularly one that could include an extended stay in the Europa League for Newcastle.

But would United really fork out nearly £7 million for merely a secondary option? I'm not convinced. There's still the chance that Cabaye or Tiote is sold in the remaining two weeks of the summer transfer window, of course, but there haven't been any creditable rumors of interest from other clubs this summer. And considering how much either would cost, that's understandable.

So let's assume for the moment that Pardew still has Cabaye and Tiote at his disposal when the calendar flips to September. My hunch - based on Anita's price tag and Pardew's oft-repeated desire to have his team control games through the midfield - then is that we'll see a fair amount of Cabaye, Tiote and Anita all playing together.

That would give Pardew all sorts of options in terms of formations and tactics. He could utilize the 4-3-3/4-5-1 look he favored for parts of the second half of last season - like Cabaye and Tiote, Anita appears to possess the right mix of mobility and passing skill to survive in the heart of that formation. (Despite his praise for Danny Guthrie, Pardew never seemed inclined to utilize United's former No. 8 alongside the other two.)

Anita could also sit deeper alongside Tiote, allowing Cabaye to push forward and connect with the likes of Demba Ba, Papiss Cisse and Hatem Ben Arfa. Perhaps Tiote will be given license to venture a bit further upfield as well, with Anita acting as a fulcrum of possession play between the center backs and the midfield.

At this point it's anyone's guess, which is the main source of intrigue with Anita's arrival. We likely won't get a definitive answer tomorrow, either, since Cabaye and Tiote are both question marks for Newcastle's season opener against Spurs.

For all of United's progress last season, it still didn't consistently control possession in games - Newcastle was below the 50 percent possession mark for the season - and at times got overrun in the center of the midfield.

Perhaps Anita can remedy those problems. Once again we'll have to wait and see.

Play Fantasy Premier League With Us!

We've cut it close to the start of the new season, but we've once again created a league through the Premier League's official fantasy game.

To join, go to the Fantasy Premier League website, build your team and enter our league code: 1212360-285881.

We're planning on awarding a yet-to-be-unveiled prize to the winner at the end of the season. Ties will be broken based on which team has James Perch on its roster.

Oh, and if you are the Omar M. who played in the league last season, send us an email.

On The Air: Is Newcastle For Real, For Real?

The podcast is back! On a special season-preview edition, IWIWAG's tremendous trio check out a boy named Anita, the endless permutations of formations, predictions about the unpredictable, and an opening match versus Somebody. Plus the proper pronunciation of Atromitos (we think). Click below to listen, or visit our iTunes page to download your very own file (and rate it). Howay the new season!

 

I Wish I Was A Geordie 2013-1

A Case For Overpaying For Debuchy

I don't know if Mathieu Debuchy should be Newcastle United's top transfer target this summer.

But based on everything that's been written since May, Alan Pardew and Graham Carr seem to think so. And yet Newcastle finds itself in a stalemate with Lille, having had its latest offer of €6 million plus add-ons turned down last week.

Lille president Michel Seydoux has been talking tough, saying Debuchy will stay at the club. In reality, Newcastle can still in all likelihood land its man if it's willing to pay a few more million euros.

Of course, United has become renowned for its reluctance to overpay. Mike Ashley and Derek Llambias view players as commodities with defined values. As a broad philosophy, it's sensible. And it's fueled Newcastle's quicker-than-expected turnaround.

But United finds itself in a drastically different situation this summer compared to last. As Pardew himself said last week, the club doesn't need "ground-breaking changes" this time around. It's about adding the right players - the difference makers - who can push Newcastle to the next level.

So if Debuchy is one of players - and all indications are that Newcastle view him as such - then perhaps it's sensible in this case to go above and beyond to land him.