I Wish I Was A Geordie - The Blog of Newcastle United in the US

Should Ba Have Followed Klose's Lead?

It was a handball. Demba Ba acknowledged as much by motioning to the Newcastle United fans as he celebrated the 83rd-minute equalizer that gave his club an undeserved 2-2 draw at Reading.

Let's be honest: If that was Luis Suarez, all of England - outside of Liverpool - would be up in arms, calling him a cheat and plenty of much more offensive terms.

The situation also provides a great contrast to Miroslav Klose's actions in a Serie A match earlier this week. The German forward scored off a corner kick to give Lazio a 1-0 lead against Napoli, before confessing to the referee that he had handled the ball. The goal was disallowed, and Lazio went on to lose 3-0. Klose was deservedly praised for his sportsmanship.

Granted, the Napoli players began frantically appealing immediately after the would-be goal. Reading's defenders and goalkeepers didn't react the same way on Saturday. So the goal stood, Ba celebrated and Newcastle eked out a point on the road.

And I found myself kind of wishing United had left empty-handed.

Pretenders, Late Bloomers And The Urgency Of Reading

Fasten your emotional seat belts, fellow Newcastle United fans: Europe for next season is about to be decided.

Wait a second. It's only the sixth match, right? Of a 38-match schedule. And Newcastle is facing what's being described in media accounts as one of the more nondescript fixtures of the season, at newly promoted and dead-last Reading.

Premier League history shows, however, that in a typical season, Matchdays 6 through 9 are when pretenders for European slots are shaken back to mid-table or lower, and late bloomers (if any) make their run to the top. By Matchday 10, in most seasons, the shape of the league is largely set, and the rest of the campaign is about jockeying up or down a couple of spots.

Let's start with the pretenders. In an average season, the latest date an eventual bottom-half team is seen in the league's top five is Matchday 7, and the latest date a team an eventual bottom-half team hangs onto 6th place is Matchday 9. (See table at right.) The most notable exceptions occurred in the 2000-2001 season, when Leicester City stood in fifth place as late as Matchday 20 and crashed to 13th by the end of the season, and Newcastle stood in sixth place on Matchday 24 - Jan. 24, 2001 - and eventually finished 11th. These are the only two clubs in the history of the 20-team Premier League to have been in potential European slots after New Year's and fail to finish in the top half of the table. (I wasn't a Newcastle fan back then, but perhaps some of our more experienced readers would like to comment and share memories and/or explanations of that season.)

Now on to the late bloomers, defined here as any club rallying from 10th or below to finish 6th or above, 10th being Newcastle's position at the moment, and 6th or above being the potential
European slots. The latest a run like that happens in a typical season is Matchday 6 to 8. Only once has a club standing 10th or lower after Matchday 10 rallied to end the season 5th or above: Tottenham Hotspur in 2006-2007, who were 10th on Matchday 16 (Dec. 6) and ended up 5th, barely losing out to Arsenal for England's last Champions League slot after a late-season bout of food poisoning. The other notable late bloomer in Premier League history was Aston Villa in 2003-2004, which stood 11th on Matchday 23 (Feb. 1) and eventually finished 6th - not good enough that season, however, for even a UEFA Cup berth.

Why is the general shape of the Premier League decided so early in the season? This is alien to us American sports fans, having become accustomed to champions in our major sports "catching fire at the right time" in the latter part of their seasons and charging past fading rivals (including my own Green Bay Packers two years ago, who had to win their final two regular-season games just to be the final sixth-place playoff qualifier in their half of the league, then won four consecutive playoff games ending with the Super Bowl).

In America, though, the leagues are tighter to begin with, thanks to competitive-balancing measures like the reverse-order-of-finish player draft and salary caps. In England, by contrast, the mid-season transfer window means that in general, top clubs get better as the season progresses at the expense of lower clubs, compressing top and bottom teams against one another rather than shuffling them.

So Newcastle finds itself entering the key stretch of the Premier League's often decisive pre-window season. The sudden loss of Yohan Cabaye with a tooth issue - didn't he blow his visa for the summer 2011 US tour because of an unpaid dental bill? wtf? - along with the continued absence of Tim Krul and the questionable/missing status of defenders in front of him will even the odds Saturday against a relegation candidate, as may emotion as the Royals face a former manager done good. Tricky fixtures lie beyond Reading in the critical match 6 to 9 run, with Man U at St. James' Park, the derby away on Wearside and a home match with early surprise West Brom sandwiched around Europa League host dates with Bordeaux and Brugge. 

So is Saturday's fixture "nondescript"? Hardly. Not to ramp up the pressure. But we could well look back on the trip to Reading as being the ignition or fizzle of Newcastle's drive for a return to Europe.

2020 For Pardew: A Surprising Deal That's Not That Surprising

Mike Ashley doesn't like to throw around big money when it comes to transfers. But the Newcastle United owner clearly still enjoys picking his spots to make a splash - and isn't averse to doing something that turns heads.

So Thursday's announcement that Ashley had approved eight-year contracts for Alan Pardew and his coaching staff shouldn't come as a total surprise. Eight years is usually a preposterous number when it comes to soccer managers, and Ashley and managing director Derek Llambias knew they were going to grab some headlines.

Pardew and top assistant John Carver were already signed through the 2015-16 season, so essentially this is a four-year extension for them (no doubt with significant improvements on their previous contracts). It's unclear how long Steve Stone and Andy Woodman had committed to before, but they now have the sort of job security most assistants and goalkeeping coaches could only dream of.

The downside to any long-term contract is the potential for regression. Sometimes the desire to prove oneself wanes. Sometimes the player or coach in question just wasn't that good to begin with.

But this doesn't seem like that large of a risk for Newcastle. How many other managers would truly embrace the current regime's master plan? Pardew is well aware he won't have "shedloads of cash," as he would say, at his disposal, even if he should guide the team into the Champions League. He had every chance to voice frustrations over United's transfer frugality this summer and consistently backed Ashley and Llambias.

And it's not as if Pardew is some hot young manager getting his first taste of the spotlight, an Andre Villas-Boas type. He's a 51-year-old who's been through ups and downs all over the pyramid of English football. Newcastle knows Pardew can handle the media scrutiny, communicate with the fans, massage locker-room egos and work with - and defend - the men upstairs.

Llambias gave some rare interviews on Thursday (including this wide-ranging one in the Mirror) and invoked the tenures of Sir Alex Ferguson, Arsene Wenger and David Moyes at their respective clubs as supporting evidence for the move. Ferguson and Wenger might be a bit of a stretch considering the players they've had at their disposal - Moyes is a more apt comparison, given Everton's level of investment - but the overall point is valid: Assuming you have the right person in charge, stability aids success.

For this club, under this regime, Pardew sure looks like the right person.

League Cup Recap, Or What I Would've Said On talkSPORT

The three of us were incredibly excited when a producer from talkSPORT's "Extra Time" show invited us to take part in a segment about Newcastle's loss to Manchester United in the Capital One Cup. As the designated victim, I took copious notes, hoping to do adopted Geordies proud with some world-class analysis. And then nothing happened - we think there was some sort of incompatibility between their phone and mine.

Nonetheless, it'd be a shame to let that concentrated brilliance go to waste. So here's what I would've said on talkSPORT, had they actually been able to reach me.

The cup competitions really present Newcastle with a difficult situation. On one hand, it's a chance to win a trophy. On the other, the extra matches stretch the squad, which is already trying to cope with the Premier League and Europa League. As far as this season is concerned, Alan Pardew has made it clear that the Premier League is the top priority, so last night's lineup was not especially surprising - and actually, it could help down the road.

There has been a lot of hand-wringing among supporters about the transfer window, notably the failure to bring in defensive cover. However, Newcastle has made a concerted effort to find players between 18 and 21 years old, whether recruited from abroad or brought up through the academy. Those players will only get better and push for first-team spots if they have a chance to play. If James Tavernier or Shane Ferguson prove themselves, suddenly the fullback situation doesn't look quite as alarming.

And luckily, both Tavernier and Ferguson were sharp last night. Tavernier looked like the perfect understudy for Davide Santon at left back. He's quick, determined to join the attack, and loves to cut in on his right foot. He even took a shot from outside the box, a position that Santon also seems to get into two or three times a match without pulling the trigger.

If Ferguson can put his  injury problems behind him, he provides an option that's missing from the squad otherwise - a left-footed left back who loves to make overlapping runs and put in a good cross. Pardew looked like a genius when Ferguson connected with Papiss Cissé immediately after coming on.

Of course, traditional crossing wingers should never be Newcastle's first option. For one thing, trying to play Hatem Ben Arfa strictly on the left means sacrificing much of his ability. But as a plan B, to be deployed when the starters fail to break down the opposition, Ferguson may prove to be an important player this year.

And what of last night's goalscorer, the aforementioned Cissé? For most of the season, he's looked like Superman carrying a suitcase full of Kryptonite. While his header won't win any Goal of the Season awards, it certainly seemed like a confidence booster. His later attempt at an overhead kick would probably have gone out for a throw-in against Norwich. 

Unlike Demba Ba, whose best attributes complement the team, Cissé is basically a one-man show. He struggles to link up with teammates, and his movement and vision are often lacking. But when in form, that doesn't matter. As we've seen, he has the audacity and technique to hit the net from practically anywhere on the field, with any type of shot you could imagine.

If Cissé and Ba end up firing at the same time, that will be 10 times more important than anything that happened in the match last night. With a nondescript trip to Reading lined up on Saturday, maybe Newcastle will finally be able to get the season started in style.

Ba Proves His Point

1996 vice presidential candidate (and ex-NFL quarterback) Jack Kemp once called soccer socialist. Yet it's a sport that revels in individual artistry, perhaps more than any other. Fans flock to YouTube to bask in the Gallic flair of Hatem Ben Arfa, or marvel at the physics-defying strikes of Papiss Cissé. With that duo in the limelight, perhaps it's not surprising that Demba Ba hasn't always gotten due credit for his own brilliance.

Over the summer, Ba was routinely thought of as the most expendable of Newcastle's three-man forward line. Given the lingering release clause in his contract, maybe it was a defense mechanism we employed, expecting to see Ba elsewhere come September. Or maybe, given Ba's late-season struggles, we'd simply forgotten how good he actually is.

That line of thinking even seemed to infect his own manager, Alan Pardew. Despite Cissé's extremely poor start to the season, it was Ba who found himself out of the starting lineup against Everton last Monday. After rescuing the club from what looked like a sure defeat, he then produced a stellar performance against Norwich on Sunday. With rumors about Ba's unhappiness swirling, Pardew complimented his character as well as his play: "not just his goal - in the dressing room, everything about him was top drawer." 

In fact, Ba has been every bit as good as he was during his best run last season, when his 16 goals carried Newcastle through a similarly uninspired spell. In March, my co-blogger Bob compared Ba to then-Arsenal sharpshooter Robin van Persie. Though van Persie "scores when he wants," at that time Ba had been even more efficient, leading the Premier League by scoring on 27% of his shots. So far this season, he's been similarly clinical: his four goals have come on 14 shots, a 29% chance conversion rate. 

The Norwich match highlighted exactly what Ba does well, and how his style brings the best out of his teammates. When he is on form, he seems to have a telepathic connection with Ben Arfa and Yohan Cabaye, turning their diagonal passes into effortless finishes. Even ignoring the run for Sunday's goal, Ba somehow picked up that Ben Arfa would follow his first-half nutmeg of Andrew Surman with a pass between Michael Turner's legs. It's not a breathtaking gift like Ben Arfa's, but subtly special nonetheless. On Twitter after the game, Ba commented that Ben Arfa and Cabaye "make football look easy." Either one could say the same about him.

Of course, no discussion of Ba can ignore his penchant for petulance. Unhappy at being an unused sub for Senegal in the Africa Cup of Nations qualifier, he retweeted a fan's question: "Is your manager mad?" Then he was left on the bench in favor of Cissé against Everton, and displayed a similar sense of irritation.

Though his attitude may rub fans the wrong way at times, Ba's been upset for the right reasons, and responded in the right way. Too many former Newcastle players were content to pick up a healthy paycheck, whether or not they ever saw the field. Ba's frustration has come from not playing, and when given the opportunity, he showed Pardew - and all of us - exactly why he should. Point proved. 

Cissé Needs A Break From The Spotlight

I love Jonas Gutierrez as a player. As a psychologist, not so much.

Reportedly it was Jonas' idea that Papiss Cissé step up for the late-first-half penalty kick that could've meant an early burial rather than a slow wake for Norwich City at St. James' Park in what turned out to be a nail-chewing 1-0 Newcastle victory on Sunday. It's easy to pick apart the decision, given that most readers of this blog could've gotten the ball closer to the net than Cissé managed. But even if he'd made it, the up-side of a charity goal on his confidence might well have been slim. And current research indicates the pressure of a penalty kick is the last thing a player in Cissé's kind of slump needs.

I've long been fascinated by cold streaks and have occasionally quizzed managers and coaches about the mindset behind them. Nearly all will talk at some point about "thinking too much." The problem is, telling a human not to think usually results in additional thinking about thinking, not less thinking.

It doesn't take an expert to guess this is what Cissé is going through. His touch on chances isn't fluid right now; there's an instant of planning that didn't exist with his impossible-to-do-on-purpose wondergoals of last season, nor when he escaped Newcastle earlier this season for international play and scored the most ridiculous goal I have ever seen. Back in the Premier League, his mind is in the way once again. All the penalty kick did Sunday was give him a shot with lots of time to think.

One of my favorite sports stories in recent years, which I've referenced once before on this blog, is a 2010 piece from Wired about the too-much-thinking phenomenon in slumps, and new ideas for combating it. The psychological term for too much thinking in the context of sport is called "explicit monitoring," the conscious thinking about what you're doing instead of doing it automatically having mastered it. And the latest medicine for it is called "useful distraction" - something to distract yourself from thinking about what you're doing without distracting from the overall task at hand, i.e., to win the game.

Sports are rife with examples of players improving performance when distracted. Sometimes the distraction is positive, such as the "birthday effect" discovered by pioneering baseball statistician Bill James, who found that baseball players perform better on their birthdays than could be explained by chance. Sometimes the distraction is neutral, such as hockey players who sing to themselves during face-offs or golfers who count backward to themselves during putts. Sometimes the distraction is negative, like the oft-noted phenomenon of players overperforming while suffering from minor illnesses like the flu, which turns their attention away from close detail in favor of simply performing and making it through the game.

Sometimes the distraction can even be tragic. Here in Wisconsin, Green Bay Packers fans will never forget legendary quarterback Brett Favre's best career performance, in a Monday Night Football game in Oakland the day after the death of his father. In a story on the game years later, the New York Daily News wrote, "Favre was such an emotional wreck that he forgot everything he studied - his audibles, the Raiders' pass coverages, everything. His mind went blank. His warmup tosses to backup quarterback Doug Pederson, only 10 yards away, were all over the place." But: "Once the game began, Favre's legendary competitiveness took over." Just last night, America witnessed a similarly stunning and moving career performance on national television by Baltimore Ravens' wide receiver Torrey Smith, playing just hours after his younger brother had been killed in a motorcycle crash. "If I was going to be out there, I was going to give it my all," Smith said afterward. "You're on the lines, you just want to make the play. Afterwards is when you can sit back and reflect on things."

Of course, no one wishes a tragedy or the flu on Cissé. But he appears in desperate need of a distraction of some kind. He could sing to himself. He could count backward. He could be given some small new task or role to concentrate on. Anything but the sole spotlight of Sunday's gift penalty kick, or his ill-fated stint as lone striker in the previous match at Everton. It's time for medicine that will fight his ailment, not feed it.

What's Pardew's Plan B?

Despite the protests of Demba Ba's agent, resting Ba on Monday should not have been a controversial decision at all. With a full slate of midweek matches throughout the fall, it's only prudent to rotate Ba and Papiss Cissé to keep both healthy and fresh. But there was a curious choice in Alan Pardew's starting eleven - playing Hatem Ben Arfa as a conventional left winger.

Ben Arfa introduced himself to Newcastle fans almost exactly two years ago in the same position, as he turned Everton defenders inside out from the left wing at Goodison Park. But Chris Hughton had a very different set of players and tactical approach in September 2010. Putting the left-footed Ben Arfa on the left wing was logical with Andy Carroll to aim at in the box. An out-of-form Cissé was much less likely to find himself on the end of a cross Monday night, making Pardew's tactical decision rather puzzling.

What should the manager do when trying to keep either Ba or Cissé in reserve? Here are some options that would better suit the squad.

4-4-2 with Ba and Shola Ameobi up front: Before Sunderland graciously decided to fly Cissé to St. James' Park for his medical, Pardew used the duo of Ba and Ameobi to bully Manchester United into submission. This approach only works against other 4-4-2 teams, as Man U was in January. Otherwise, the opposition can outnumber Newcastle in the midfield, with disastrous consequences. It would also present an opportunity to play Ben Arfa on the left, with Ameobi's presence making his left-footed crosses a viable option.

4-3-1-2 with Ameobi + Ba or Cissé, Ben Arfa behind: Essentially, this would be the simplest swap - just take the preferred formation and rest one of the strikers. While Ameobi isn't especially mobile, he essentially provides an axis for the fluid attacking formation around him. In particular, this look benefits Ben Arfa, who's clearly been Newcastle's best player this season, by giving him a free attacking role. As a bonus, Newcastle has six players who could fit into the midfield three behind him, providing more opportunities to rotate the squad as necessary.

4-2-3-1 with Ba up top, Ben Arfa on the right, Marveaux on the left: A small tweak from Pardew's choices against Everton, but one that could pay dividends. Of Newcastle's strikers, it's Ba who has proven to be most effective on his own. He has the movement and link-up play that Cissé lacks, allowing for some intricate passing with the French trio of Ben Arfa, Marveaux, and Yohan Cabaye behind him. Starting Ben Arfa on the right makes him a shoot-first player, which is important with only one recognized striker on the field. 

These three formation choices - with Ben Arfa notably playing in three different positions - would provide the attacking punch Newcastle lacked in the first half against Everton. Pardew has shown a willingness to experiment with different formations in the last several months. With Monday providing a sorely needed lesson, next time he should be able to set the team up better when keeping half of the Senegalese strike force on the shelf.

Finally, Some Fight

Newcastle United had no business leaving Goodison Park with a point Monday night. Anyone saying otherwise is completely delusional.

And even if Shola Ameobi and Demba Ba hadn't combined for what could turn out to be an important equalizing goal, I wouldn't have been angry. Because at least we finally saw the 2012-13 edition of Newcastle wake up.

United was outpassed, outchanced (although not by as big of a margin as you'd think) and, overall, outplayed by a pretty impressive Everton team. Newcastle looked disinterested in the first half, and it wasn't the first sleepy display from this group. It's been a flatline start to the season, a couple of magical moments in an otherwise disjointed opening win against Spurs aside.

Monday's first-half performance was easily the most comatose, though, and Alan Pardew rightly labelled it the worst display since he took over. United looked uncomfortable in a 4-5-1 setup and defended as though Everton's players had forcefields surrounding them. Sylvain Marveaux offered up one of the most invisible showings of all time on the right wing, James Perch looked like his old self at right back and Papiss Cisse called into question whether he should ever again be played alone up top.

The introduction of an apparently angry Demba Ba - allegedly miffed about not starting - finally injected some life into Newcastle's XI. A formation reshuffle helped, too, with Perch looking more like Perchinho in the center of the midfield and Vurnon Anita improving after switching to right back. Shola Ameobi's entrance seemed to bring United up another level.

The defending still wasn't particularly good - we can all agree that Everton was denied two legitimate goals - and there were other holes in the second-half performance.

But at least it provided hope that Newcastle might be ready to kick into a higher gear.

Steve Wraith And The Summer Of Discontent

An interminable, injury-filled international break has added to fans’ frustration with Newcastle’s slow start. Earlier in the week, Steve Wraith – last seen leading a funeral procession for St. James’ Park – stirred up anti-ownership sentiment once again, this time over the summer transfer window. It’s not surprising. This is the one note that Wraith knows how to hit. When he does, the portion of the fans who agree will rally around him.

Then the club’s official Twitter account decided to go after Wraith for “attempting to disrupt the club with unnecessary negative comment.” The tweet was correct, because that was exactly what he was doing. But it was also wrong, because there is absolutely no need to respond to fans in that manner.

Earlier this month, ESPN magazine released its annual survey of the fans of every team in the four major American sports. The two most important factors in each club’s score were fan relations and turning fans’ money into on-field success. Were Newcastle rated here, the second factor seems to negatively impact the first.

Neither Mike Ashley nor Derek Llambias has had much time for the fans lately, except for an odd response to fan-submitted questions at the end of last summer. Whether it was part of the plan or sheer luck, they have a manager in Alan Pardew who handles the press and supporters with aplomb, helping to mask the poor approach from the boardroom.

Nonetheless, there's only so much a skilled talker like Pardew can make of a glaring mistake. And as my co-blogger pointed out earlier today, the failure to bring in a center back this summer definitely qualifies. What's even more puzzling is that Newcastle is expected to be back in for Mapou Yanga-Mbiwa in January, which raises the obvious question of why the club didn't try harder to bring him in earlier.

Stinginess has built a stable club that won’t go the route of Portsmouth and Leeds, fading into lower-league obscurity. It also irritates supporters, who wonder why Newcastle failed to be more aggressive this summer, and why – outside of a few unconvincing comments from Pardew – no one at the club shares their disappointment about it.

At the same time, the big picture at Newcastle in September 2012 is a positive one. Perhaps my perspective is a bit odd, since my tenure as a supporter exactly coincides with Mike Ashley’s as owner. Five years ago, the team was laden with overrated, overpaid, and over-the-hill “stars,” whose expensive signings no doubt warmed the hearts of many of Steve Wraith’s current group of supporters. Relegation was a deserved punishment for such a short-sighted approach, and some of the blame lies at Ashley’s feet.

Now, even if the club is short in a couple areas, the overall talent level and professionalism of the team is so much higher than it was even two years ago. Poor results aside, this is a group that’s worth watching, and the core of the team is young enough to stay together for a few more seasons. If Steve Wraith can’t see that, he’s missing out on a great experience.

Pardew's Excuse Reveals The Inexcusable

Skepticism is rightly rampant among Newcastle fans over Alan Pardew’s declaration that ending summer with a lack of reinforcements at center-back was done on purpose so as not to block the development of two reserve defenders, one of whom is barely old enough to go to junior prom and the other of whom would need to develop a few extra inches of height to be a top choice at the position. By that logic, Demba Ba and Papiss Cissé are mistakes because they’re in Adam Campbell’s way.

Back in my days covering sports for a living, I learned to treat the odder pronouncements of managers and coaches the same way political scientists treat Chinese propaganda: Pay more attention to the purpose than the content. The potential reasons why Pardew would advance such a lame excuse are more interesting than the excuse itself.

One possible reason Pardew took the player development route is he hoped it might play better in what’s been reported to be an unsteady locker room than yet another shoulder-shrugging reiteration of the club’s persnickety transfer policy. “See everyone? Mike and Derek are just trying to protect the players we already have whom we value so much, just like you.” One would think the players would be smarter than to swallow that line, but in telling it to the press Pardew apparently thought it might play with the public, and whether soccer players as a group are more gullible than the general public is an open question. At any rate, Pardew’s comments seem to dovetail with what Luke Edwards of the Telegraph termed last week to be “dark rumblings” of dissatisfaction within the club.

Another plausible reason Pardew declined to defend the transfer policy is that the transfer policy is too dysfunctional, at least in this case, for him to defend. A bad excuse is the best evidence of no excuse. And regardless of how much one might admire Newcastle United’s transfer approach, there is really no credible explanation, in this instance, for going into European competition with a back line this thin.

Somewhere on Planet Earth, at this moment, roams a decent center-back on some other club whom Newcastle could have secured over the summer at a reasonable cost. No, he wouldn’t have been a rock-solid bargain. The acquisition wouldn’t have come with the meth rush of a possible multi-million-pound profit down the line. It wouldn’t have been the kind of deal that Derek Llambias could brag about one day with profanity-laced bravado in a Newcastle bistro. But it would’ve been enough to allow the club to compete seriously in an expanded season without putting its most valuable players at risk of overwork and injury. A transfer policy without even that much wiggle room is, indeed, indefensible.

We at the blog applaud the way Newcastle United is assembling its club. How could any reasonable fan not applaud it, given the recent results? But there comes a point at which even a sound policy needs to bend so that its club doesn’t break. It wouldn’t have been a coup to bring in a serviceable center-back at approximately the price a serviceable center-back is worth. It would’ve been merely smart. Newcastle United needs to learn when smart is enough.