I Wish I Was A Geordie - The Blog of Newcastle United in the US

NBC TV Deal Could Be US Game-Changer For NUFC

At right is a picture of what Newcastle United fandom in the US looked like last Sunday, and on too many previous weekend mornings: Toon shirts crammed into a corner of a pub, squinting at a jumpy computer screen, while red-clad fans of Liverpool and Man U and Arsenal were treated to real broadcasts on real TVs.

These days may soon be over.

We imagine word of the Premier League's new US television deal isn't making more than a ripple across the Atlantic, but here in America, fans of English soccer are reeling at the possibility of all PL matches being broadcast or streamed live via NBC and its partner networks starting next season. And no club stands to benefit more from the new arrangement than Newcastle United.

Newcastle United fans in America aren't likely to miss the Fox era of Premier League coverage. A glance at the @FoxSoccer timeline on Twitter will give you an idea of the shallow hokiness to which US supporters of PL clubs have been subjected the past few years. The level of televised commentary has been shockingly lazy and uninformed - before a recent Newcastle match Davide Santon was referred to as "David Stanton" and the studio commentators had clearly never heard of other Newcastle players referenced by Warren Barton, who as an NUFC alumnus is the only Fox personality who appears to be fully aware Newcastle United exists. Fox and its ESPN2 partner don't have airspace for more than a handful of live matches on TV broadcast per week, so their coverage and knowledge have tilted heavily to the four or five "big" clubs they perceive as comprising the US audience. To cite one example, Newcastle's final match against Everton last season was shunted to an online stream despite its Champions League implications, while space on broadcast TV was devoted to seven other matches including two involving Liverpool and Chelsea that had no relevance whatsoever.

Unlike Fox, which holds daytime broadcast rights to NCAA and NFL American football, NBC has plenty of room for weekend sports programming on its main network as well as cable/satellite subsidiaries like CNBC, MSNBC and the new NBC Sports Network, which has been doing a classy job with MLS broadcasts. Details about the new TV schedule are yet to come, but the network's stated intention of providing 18 to 20 matches live on NBC itself is especially tantalizing to fans here, considering that not even in England are Premier League games offered over the air and for free. On vacation recently I was thrilled enough to see a tape-delayed broadcast of the Newcastle-Man U match being shown to curious Americans in a remote Northwoods tavern via Fox, filling a hole in the network's NFL schedule. Imagine Newcastle being shown live and free in every pub in the land via one of just four major over-the-air networks here.

That's where Newcastle's organization and fans stand to benefit handsomely under the new television deal. Newcastle United is essentially the biggest Premier League club being discounted by American TV under the current arrangement. Everyone expects NBC will concentrate heavily on Manchester United and Arsenal and Chelsea and Liverpool, as Fox has. But NBC has the capacity to do more, and better too, judging from the quality of its Olympic and MLS coverage. With Newcastle waiting at the front of the line, this Toon Army loyalist can hardly wait.

Sissoko Reports Premature, But Not Preposterous

In analyzing weekend reports that Newcastle United had wrapped up a deal for free-agent-to-be Moussa Sissoko, my co-blogger Bob correctly poked holes in the rumor. The stories lacked sufficient details to back up their considerable claims - not exactly surprising, given the publications in question.

But I'll disagree with him when he says this deal "makes no sense on its face if you think about it for more than an instant."

Sure, plenty of big clubs have been linked with Sissoko. Yet he's managed to stay at Toulouse - a respectable French club, but by no means a Ligue 1 power - since breaking through to the first team in 2007. Sissoko has also yet to truly establish himself as a regular for the French national team (he's made five appearances for Les Bleus, and his callup earlier this month was his first since Aug. 2010). So, could a club like Juventus or Bayern Munich make a play for Sissoko? Absolutely. Is it a synch? Based on his profile, absolutely not. In fact, Yohan Cabaye boasted a more impressive resume when he arrived on Tyneside in the summer of 2011 than Sissoko currently does.

Sissoko also wouldn't be rendered bench fodder should Cheick Tiote stay on Tyneside for another season. The Frenchman has been deployed as a defensive midfielder, but he's also played in an attacking role - Toulouse has used him on the right flank of a 4-3-3 at times - frequently throughout his career. Sissoko's skillset wouldn't be redundant in Newcastle's midfield; it would be a welcome addition alongside Cabaye and Tiote, who both prefer to sit deeper.

Subsequent local reports have indicated Newcastle is indeed interested in Sissoko and the Frenchman is intrigued enough by the potential move to seek Cabaye's counsel. That's still a long way from a done deal, but makes this rumor one that shouldn't be laughed off.

Sissoko To Newcastle: We Doubt It

Just as Christmas decorations have already begun elbowing out pumpkins and goblins in US retail outlets, ridiculous transfer rumor season has arrived early for Newcastle United, in the form of reports that Toulouse midfielder and France international Moussa Sissoko has been sewed up for the Toon next season in a pre-contract deal.

Our analysis: Hahahahahahaha.

Here are some signs that a transfer rumor is, to borrow an English phrase, utter shite:

- It starts in a London daily.

- It cites no sources, even anonymous ones such as "a club official" or "a person close to the player."

- It has no corroboration in the player's native country and/or the country of his current team, except on sketchy transfer rumor websites that quote London dailies.

- It lacks details that any source who would know about the signing would also be able to supply, such as the player's or clubs' reasoning behind the move, a timeline of events leading to the transaction, or a ballpark estimate of the wage and/or fee.

- It makes no sense on its face if you think about it for more than an instant.

The Sissoko-to-Newcastle rumor ticks all these dubious boxes, including the last one. We've seen a bit of Sissoko in match action on our TV and computer screens, and he would indeed be a mouthwatering acquisition. But with every big English club plus wealthy Europowers like Juventus and Bayern showing understandable interest, there's little evidence his wage would fit the carefully calibrated Toon structure. What's more, he's tailor-made for the role already being played at Newcastle by Cheick Tiote. And he's too expensive to be used for mere depth. Other than that, the move is perfectly logical.

Not to say the prospect of Sissoko in black-and-white is forever impossible. United has shown interest, according to a reputable report in the Chronicle. United could lose Tiote, freeing a spot and some legal tender for a replacement. Sissoko's stock could fall and put other clubs off the scent. But at the current moment, he's just not the sort of value-player-being-overlooked-by-everyone-else who screams "Newcastle." He's 23 and soon to be out-of-contract. That was enough cloth for a haggard journalist in London who needed some copy to construct something. We're not buying.

Three Vital Points At Stake Against West Brom

Last week: Newcastle should have finally gotten its Premier League season going after a bright start at the Stadium of Light. Then Martin Atkinson took out his red card, and snuffed out any hopes of routing rival Sunderland. With another opportunity for three points wasted, it is vital for the club to start stringing together wins - quickly - before a repeat trip to Europe fades from view.

Meanwhile, West Brom also squandered a golden chance Saturday against Manchester City. A 1-0 lead and one-man advantage was not enough for Albion, as Edin Dzeko netted twice in the waning minutes to drop West Brom to eighth in the table. 

Keys to the match: In our most recent podcast, we talked about the speed-driven counterattack that West Brom features. Last December, Newcastle felt the full brunt of that storm, as West Brom's quickness terrorized the high line Alan Pardew had put in place. But the most important player for the visitors could be attacking midfielder James Morrison, not pacy strikers Shane Long or Peter Odemwingie.

Morrison has been the most potent player in blue and white this season, scoring twice and leading Albion with 15 chances created in open play. His presence has meant that Steve Clarke has mostly set his club up in a 4-2-3-1 formation, leaving one of his strikers on the bench or out wide.

The packed West Brom midfield, and the absence of Cheick Tioté, means that Pardew should avoid reverting to 4-4-2, even if it finally flickered to life against Sunderland. Were I in the manager's designer shoes, Newcastle would play Yohan Cabaye, Jonás Gutiérrez, and James Perch in a midfield three today, in hopes of both blunting Morrison and giving Cabaye license to start attacks of his own. Otherwise, an outmanned midfield could find itself overrun at the start of the match, as has happened several other times this season.

What Santon Can Learn From Obertan's Outing

Watching Gabriel Obertan live up to his talent against Club Brugge Thursday could provide inspiration for a young teammate who has yet to put an amazing skill set to full use at Newcastle United.

Like Obertan, Davide Santon has too often found himself all dressed up with nowhere to go after majestic runs down the Newcastle flank, chickening out on a shot or without an option or idea for a cut, pass or cross. As a defender, Santon has attracted somewhat less lightning from fans than Obertan for the fizzles at the ends of his ball-carrying fireworks. But Santon has attacking skills unlike any other defender - maybe any other player - in the Premier League.

No one should've been surprised to see Hatem Ben Arfa at the top in our look last week at the Premier League's best dribblers. But Santon is right on Ben Arfa's heels in his ability to beat challengers with the ball, and when dispossessions are subtracted from challenges won, only one player in the entire league - Luis Suárez - is better at leaving opponents in his jet stream than Newcastle's Italian back. Only 25 players in the league win challenges more often than they're dispossessed; 12 are defenders. What sets Santon apart is that he has much more of the ball and is facing far more challenges than any other back in the league. Santon is 16th in the Premier League in number of challenges faced while dribbling; only two other defenders are in the league's top 50 on that list, at No. 45 and 46 (Rafael and Glen Johnson). While the best dribblers in the league, at any position, will beat two challengers per match, it's not unusual to see Santon beat two on a single run, and he had one such sequence against Brugge. It's enough to make a Newcastle fan drool at the thought of Santon learning to apply the exclamation point.

Santon is only 21 - two years younger than a still-young Obertan - and he's fully aware of where he stands in his development. "Everyone always tells me 'shoot, just shoot, Davide', but I never shoot," Santon recently told Louise Taylor of the Guardian. "I have chances to shoot three or four times a game but I always pass. Now I have to make myself cut inside on my right foot and shoot because I know I can score." The potential dividends of an inside cut for such a talented ball-carrier are one reason his manager has been reluctant to play Santon on what would appear to be his natural right side. "Left is good because I can go inside or outside and that makes things easier," he said. "At right-back, it's harder to come inside on my left foot."

Left or right, Santon now must do what he knows he should, and that may be a matter of confidence - as it may be with Obertan, on whose behalf Alan Pardew has pleaded for patience from fans. Though his goal came from the right, Obertan seemed to flower against Brugge on what should be his unnatural left side. Perhaps playing on both sides practices the full range of his skills, as might benefit Santon as well. Or perhaps being on the left focuses Obertan on the pitch rather than his manager's and the fans' expectations. Santon hasn't been subject to that level of expectation, at least not yet. Newcastle fans don't seem to have realized how much we might reasonably expect from a player unlike any other in the league.

On The Air: Unleashing Xisco, Invading Belgium

In this week's lush podcast offering, the American Toonsters wrestle with the resurgence of Xisco and its significance (if any), the depth chart at striker, the lineup against Bruges at SJP and the interrelation thereof. Shots like a truck, truck, truck! Goals like what, what, what! Plus: How do you solve a problem like Tiote? Click below to listen, or visit our iTunes page to download your very own copy. (Photo credit: @PanicAtTheXisco)

 

I Wish I Was A Geordie 2013-5

 

Why We're Coming To Newcastle

Having gotten wind of our blog/tweet and our plans to visit Newcastle for the first time next spring, BBC Radio 5 asked us to come on their 5 live Drive show yesterday to talk about why we've chosen to follow Newcastle United, and, in host Aasmah Mir's words, "What is the appeal of paying a small fortune and flying halfway round the world to watch a football match?" I represented the blog on the show, and while I was able to get the gist across, the schedule ran late and we were squeezed into the final three minutes without much chance to elaborate. (You can hear the interview in the 5 live Drive archive here - slide the time marker almost to the end at 2:57:30.) Here's more of what I would've liked to have said, in case we don't get another chance, though Aasmah did voice an interest in having us back.

If this were a blog about art or opera, no one would ask us why we as Americans would be interested in the Louvre or La Scala, or why we'd pay a fortune to visit Paris or Milan. Yet we get that question about soccer and England, even though the best soccer on earth is played there. Sport seems to be viewed by the culture outside it as unimportant and unserious, and the time and money spent following it as frivolous.

I wholeheartedly disagree. In fact, under my Italian name I used to blog about opera, and I gave it up for this, largely because soccer matters more. The most enthusiastic operagoers on earth don't jump up and down and hug each other after a really good aria, or wear the same outfits as their favorite characters. We as soccer fans learn more about life in watching our team conquer or be conquered by a rival than watching actors conquer each other on stage according to a script. When our team conquers, we conquer; when our team is conquered, we are conquered. We celebrate and suffer along with our players, and it changes our character more profoundly - for better or worse - than the most poignant and well-presented operas.

That's what led us to Newcastle United. Soccer is more than fun to us. It matters. So we chose the club that seemed to matter most to its city and fans. In that light, the question of why we would want to visit Newcastle is close to nonsensical. How better to understand the passion for Newcastle United than to share it with those who were born into it? We've been grateful for how readily we've been accepted by Newcastle's native supporters, here on the blog and on Twitter and in person by the many Geordies we met on the club's US tour last summer. We can't wait to see home for the first time.

The Dominant Derby Performance That Might Have Been

The talk will all center on Cheick Tiote and Martin Atkinson.

And that's understandable, given the way Tiote's first-half red card - dished out by Atkinson - altered Sunday's Tyne-Wear derby.

We can go back and forth about the legitimacy of the call. All three of us felt it was only worthy of a yellow card - there's no denying Tiote was late and high, but we didn't feel as though his lunge was violent - but plenty of other rational observers, including Tiote's replacement, James Perch, supported Atkinson's decision. We've all seen the play multiple times; whatever I write isn't likely to change your opinion.

My frustration isn't so much tied to the end result. A 1-all draw on the road, all things considered, wasn't a disaster from a Newcastle perspective. But Tiote's sending off denied Newcastle an opportunity to finally hit a rhythm and get the sort of result that could ignite its season.

Before Tiote departed in the 25th minute, United displayed the sort of attacking verve that it's all too often lacked during a sleepy start to the season. Finally, a central midfielder made a timely run into the box, resulting in Yohan Cabaye's first goal of the season. Finally, Pardew's preferred 4-4-2 formation looked capable of creating an appropriate number of scoring chances and holding its own in the center of the midfield. Finally, the two central strikers looked compatible.

Too bad we only got to see that for 25 minutes. Instead, the game's final 65 minutes went about how you'd expect - Sunderland controlled possession (65.6 percent vs. 34.4) and outpassed its visitors (379-for-451, 84 percent vs. 170-for-241, 71 percent). To Newcastle's credit - or Sunderland's discredit - the hosts failed to create much of anything in the way of legitimate scoring chances. Even the tying goal was simply a free kick pumped into the box that resulted in John O'Shea's header deflecting off Demba Ba and in.

We saw Pardew's troops, led by captain Fabricio Coloccini, defend as well as they have at any point during his tenure. But we're still waiting to see the sort of complete performance that's yet to materialize in Premier League play this season.

Thanks to Tiote's red card - right or wrong - we'll have to wait another week.

Sunderland's Biggest Problem Isn't Newcastle

On the blog yesterday we featured a dribbling study identifying Hatem Ben Arfa as the Premier League's runaway leader in successful dribbles. We noted, to the apparent shared glee of fellow Newcastle fans across the webosphere, that this season Ben Arfa has dribbled past more challengers (30) than Sunderland's entire team (27). We computed an overall dribbling proficiency statistic subtracting dispossessions from challenges won, and Ben Arfa was still among the league's top 5 (along with Newcastle teammate Davide Santon), with not a Mackem to be found in the vicinity. Which led us later to peek at the bottom of the league's dribbling proficiency list. See results at right.

From this exercise, we can ascertain that potentially effective methods for dispossessing Sunderland of the ball on Sunday might include blowing on them, or yelling "boo!" Ask Mackems about their worst enemy and most would probably say Newcastle. I would say, their players' own feet.

My esteemed co-blogger Matt (who is en route to watch the derby with and meet his two blogmates in person for the very first time) has turned up several other enriching pre-derby statistics. For example, so far this season Sunderland's total ball possession is 38 percent, which Matt points out "is like playing Barca every week." We have harped often on this site and in our podcasts about Newcastle's inability to create scoring chances, with 50 in seven matches so far this season. In six matches, Sunderland has created 23.

Alas, we have a voice of reason on the blog named Tom, and he has dampened our merriment with this: "Newcastle hasn't hit their stride yet and for as poor as Sunderland has been, they're only two points back. Fletcher has been really good for them, they've defended well and you have to think they're going to be really up for this one. By all accounts, Sessegnon and McClean haven't been at their usual levels so far, but they're both still pretty talented players. Not to mention they have Johnson. They also have played at Man City and Arsenal, which obviously doesn't help their possession stats. I just have this fear that NUFC fans may be taking Sunderland a bit lightly."

Fair enough. But if we can't take Sunderland lightly, the world is a dark place indeed. Bring on the derby. With three Newcastle bloggers and friends finally united.

Freedom For Ben Arfa?

With each passing match I become more of the opinion that Hatem Ben Arfa is not just the most exciting player on Newcastle United's squad, but the most exciting player in the Premier League. If you don't agree, check out the table at right derived from WhoScored.com. That's the league's 10 best players so far this season in successful dribbles, defined as "moving past a player while maintaining possession." Ben Arfa's doing that an average of 4.4 times per match, which may not sound like a lot, until you see that out of 162 rated players, it takes only 1.8 successful dribbles per match to make this list.

In fact, Ben Arfa is leaving challengers in his wake at a historic pace. It's not a stretch to say he might be the fanciest soccer ball dribbler in the world at this moment. Since 2008 (which is as far back as I can find the statistic) only one Premier League player has sustained even three-fourths of Ben Arfa's dribbling pace (Charles N'Zogbia for Wigan in 2010-'11). Here's a fun derby week stat - Ben Arfa has dribbled past more challengers so far this season than Sunderland's entire team.

I'll admit it right now: I'm a sucker for dribbling. Aside from a goal itself nothing electrifies me more than watching a challenger on the other team get faked out of his brightly colored shorts by a Newcastle dribbler, and my all-time favorite goals are the Ben Arfa specials like last year's FA Cup score against Blackburn when he shook off half the population of Lancashire on his way to the net. I also think dribbling is important: In our "Moneyball" study last season successful dribbling was one of the 11 statistics most closely correlated with team success in the Premier League.

So I've begun to wonder if Newcastle could be making better use of its world-class dribbler than relegating him to the side of the formation as in Alan Pardew's favored 4-4-2 and less favored but more successful 4-3-3. On this site and in our podcasts we've talked about the potential advantages of playing Ben Arfa behind the forwards instead as a roaming trequartista in a 4-3-1-2, though the two soccer Einsteins I blog with are in some disagreement over this and have been going back and forth in email about it.

Matt: "The tactical point about successful dribbles is that they force the opposition to change defensive shape. That's something Newcastle has struggled with this year, because most of the outfield players find themselves in very tight areas on the field, meaning they're relatively easy to mark. When Ben Arfa beats his man with a dribble, especially if he's moving laterally across the field, that forces other players to close on him and theoretically opens up space for teammates."

Tom: "While players like Ben Arfa do open up space for teammates because they force other defenders to react, it's also harder for teammates to time their runs, simply because they don't know when he's going to pass. You start to go and then you're offside. Or you hold your run, hold your run, hold your run and he's finally released the ball.... I'm not totally sold on playing Ben Arfa in the middle, although I know with what you guys are suggesting he'd more or less be roaming. The few times he played in the middle last year he didn't do real well and throughout his career he's been on the wings. Giveaways in the middle have the potential to create more danger on counterattacks and when he's out wide it's harder to crowd him out with lots of defenders."

This exchange prompted me to look up how often Ben Arfa is being dispossessed of the ball on challenges, not just winning them. He's getting pilfered a lot, more than 3 times a game. Which led me to compute a custom stat I call dribbling proficiency: A player's successful dribbles per match minus his dispossessions.

At right are the league's top 10 players at dribbling proficiency, figuring in both successes and robberies. Ben Arfa is no longer at the top, but still way up there at No. 5. Even farther up the list, second in the league, is another very interesting name to Newcastle fans, and one particularly near to my Italian-American heart, but I'll leave a discussion of him until an upcoming post. For now I'll just note that where Ben Arfa is concerned, the risk of dispossession doesn't appear to outweigh the potential benefits of his fancy footwork. His net wins on challenges are better than 80 percent of the league's total wins. Keep in mind that challenges in the Premier League usually go to the challenger - only 25 players in the entire league maintain possession on challenges more often than they're dispossessed.

So should Ben Arfa be freed - officially, not of his own volition - to take his dribbling talents over a wider swath of the field? While I respect my friend Tom's concerns, I'd like to see United at least try it, because the potential dividend is so large. Chance conversion continues to be the team's greatest strength and chance creation one of its prime weaknesses. Anything that could help cure the latter might bring the Toon up the table for good.