Unfair Or Not, It Might Be Time For Pardew To Go

As resurgent first-half performance gave way to predictable second-half calamity, a realization slapped me in the face: To survive this season with its Premier League status still intact, Newcastle United might have to fire manager Alan Pardew.

I didn't arrive at this conclusion based on Pardew's choice of formation, tactics or substitutions during Saturday's inexcusable 2-1 home defeat to lowly Reading. Pardew is culpable for the negative effects of his decisions to remove Sylvain Marveaux and Yohan Cabaye in the second half, although there was sound reasoning behind each move when analyzed in isolation. The team has defended poorly for most of the season, so bringing James Perch on for Marveaux should have helped shore up the back while allowing Cabaye to push further forward in the midfield. Unfortunately, Cabaye needed to come off shortly thereafter to avoid aggravating his costly groin injury, thus making the Marveaux substitution ridiculous.

And it's not as if Pardew told the team at halftime to stop creating scoring chances and controlling possession. What happened in the second half is simply what often happens to teams in the midst of losing streaks. Maintaining possession for long stretches and pushing forward to create chances requires a certain level of confidence.

But that's really the point, isn't it? Newcastle appears to be firmly stuck in a mental rut and lacks the on-field leadership to haul itself out. This is a team badly in need of an injection of life. Perhaps the return of Hatem Ben Arfa will do just that, although that might not come until mid-February. Or several badly-needed new additions to the squad. For the first time, though, I'm not convinced either will be enough.

I could easily be classified as a Pardew apologist; I'm of the belief that criticism of his formations, tactics and lineups has been overstated this season, given the small, injury-riddled squad at his disposal. Firing him at this stage would be admittedly unfair — not to mention, the managerial alternatives don't figure to be too inspiring (then again, were they when Pardew was hired?) — considering that his bosses are just now purchasing the necessary reinforcements and several of his key performers are finally returning to the lineup. Pardew did a superb job in difficult circumstances last season, which should buy him a down season this time around.

Unfortunately this is slowly morphing from "down season" to "outright disaster." Relegation is now a very real possibility, and after two wins in 14 Premier League matches — and three in 18 — it should be. Over the past 10 seasons, the average points required to guarantee safety has been 36.5. If we assume Newcastle would be safe with 37 points — that's been enough in seven of the past 10 seasons — then United needs 16 from its remaining 15 matches.

Doable? Sure. But only if Newcastle manages to remember how to grind out results, while at the same time coping with the ever-increasing pressure of a relegation battle.

Sadly, I'm not sure this team, in its present form, with its present leadership, is up to the task.

Comments

[Charlie Mason]

Apart from Moneybags Chelski I don't know of any team that has achieved any success by constantly sacking managers, Alex Ferguson was 1 game away from the sack, and we know how that turned out. You have to give Pardew a decent shot and give him the right tools to do the job ! we need stability not Boom Bust management...Keep the faith !

[magpiefan]

Charlie mason is also a clueless c*nt just like pardumb.

[Beardsley's Love Child]

Hasn't Pardew had a pretty decent shot already?

The proof of a manager is not how he performs in the best cases, with his best squad, its how he handles the worse cases with what squad he has and gets through it. Pardew has been given a decent shot to prove his mettle under the direst of circumstances and he has only delivered loss, negativity and a stunning lack of creativity.

For the life of me I cant find an example of him being creative with what he has, learning from his mistakes, being flexible and doing the best possible this season. How has his creative use of subs changed the game positively this season? Likewise how his practical use of a sub defended a lead competently this season? His repeated reliance on fitting warm bodies into a rigid system and using rudimentary tactics repeatedly is simply insanity writ large.

In no situation, life, work or play are ever given the tools you totally need, you need to improvise sometimes to make up for what you don't have. Pardew has shown he is incapable of doing this.

[MNTOONARMY9]

A few things about this year:

Vukic hurt, Raylor hurt, Saylor hurt, Cabaye hurt, Tiote a foul machine, Cisse can't find the net and is offsides too much, Simpson is chasing his WAG to London, Ben Arfa has been hurt, Ba left, Jonas is playing like he's 46, Colo is a headcase, Williamson has been alternatively brilliant or horrible...kids aren't good or consistant enough, squad is too small...need I go on?

Yes, Pardew has some control over some of this (squad size, evaluation of the young guns), but he doesn't have control.

Here's the thing: If sacking Pardew would guarantee survivial, or even make it 90%+ likely, I'd do it tomorrow. Trouble is that isn't the case. If you dismiss Pardew, we still need someone to run the team...and more than a "caretaker". That didn't work for Wolves last year, remember?

Pardew didn't forget how to manage a football team over last summer. Given that sacking him won't guarantee survival, why do it? At least, why do it now?

[Mathew]

If we fire Pardew then we continue the self destructive cycle of 1 in 1 out every 18 months and look at what that's got us. He's had the best run with a Newcastle team since the late, great Bobby Robson. That wasn't luck. Luck is winning one game or 2 or 5... Not finishing 5th and giving the fans some of the best games they've seen in years.
The team has been hobbled with injuries that cripple any managers ability to manage the tactics. He's also being dealt some tough loss's where last year we arguably were on the other side of those. Let's see how this season finishes.

[Jaeger]

if we do get relegated then yes i would be ok with firing him.... but if not...id let him try to do better next year... if we are doing poorly again then ...we need someone else.

[MNTOONARMY9]

Dumb question a bit off topic related to transfer business...

...so we signed (or will sign) a 20 year old LB from France. Could that mean that Davide Santon might move to the left wing? I mean you aren't going to sign a player in this situation not to have him play and as long as Santon stays healthly, he's likely a first choice LB...but if Jonas (who everyove loves but would like to have better production) doesn't show something, could Davide Santon be playing LM for us?

I know it's not quite that easy, but given Santon's defense isn't as solid as we'd like, but he's great (I think) on the ball, why not? Unless someone has the next Nani or Draxler or Ben Arfa just hanging about waiting for at turn.

[Mathew]

I like that idea but it all hinges on this new guys production. What ever we do it needs to be more attacking!!

[rob]

Haidara apparently is very good in attack.

[9NUFC]

Let AP go? Who we going to get mid way through the season? What happen to majority of us wanting stability at the club?

While this season has been painful for us dedicated supporters, I am prepared to have AP see out the season.

That is all, for now!

Black&WhiteForeverForeverBlack&White

PS -- I have enjoyed all these signings and it looks like more still to come in too.

[Tom]

Hey guys-
Thanks for all the comments, we always strive to promote an intelligent discussion.

I understand folks wanting stability, particularly with how things have gone at NUFC in the past. I want stability as well, and I've been a fairly staunch defender of Pardew this season. But at some point, don't you have to change something if the losses continue to pile up?

If I were Ashley, I'd probably give him the Villa match. If NUFC loses that match, though, you're looking at being 17th at best, on 21 points with 14 matches to go (and the next two are home vs. Chelsea and at Spurs, so you'd like be in the bottom three after that). Don't you have to make a move at that point? Again, not saying what's transpired this season is all Pardew's fault, but there comes a point where you have to make a change just to try to spark something.

[Mathew]

Tom I get the rational when you're in a hole in Football and you make a switch you get an upswing and some points. Southampton are clearly the first to lose their nerve on the approach.
I think there is too much focus on how few points we are off the bottom 3 and none of how close we are to the four clubs above us are 2, 4, 5 and 6 points ahead of us respectively. We play three of them and we play 3 of the four below us before the end of the season.
Ashley just let Pardew go on a French buying binge so to fire him this weekend if we lose (which agree would be VERY bad as Villa is a hair below us) doesn't really make sense, unless he has someone lined up to come in and work with the system AP has built.
Unfortunately I think we'll pull a draw out this weekend but I see an upset against Chelski or Spurs. It's perfect timing, new players have had a couple weeks to settle in, it's make or break time and it will spark the rest of the season.