Blame Pardew, But For The Right Reasons

My co-bloggers and I have been taking some flak lately about not being hard enough on Alan Pardew. In reality none of us is happy with the performance of anyone associated with Newcastle United this season, manager included. But we also think it's fair to ask, what about this nightmare was actually Pardew's fault, and what fault lies with the players and the people who procured them? Being the primary stat-head on the blog, I've decided to attack these questions with some key numbers derived from our previous "Moneyball" posts.

I believe some performance categories are more in the manager's control than others. Basketball coaches here in the States will often tell reporters, "We got the shots, we just didn't hit them." That's a veiled way of saying, "My system worked, the players just screwed it up." The excuse is overused but there can be truth in it. Teamwork is necessary to set up a shot, so that's more the job of the orchestrator than one individual. But once the shot is presented it's mostly up to the physical and mental ability of the player to make it. The same is true, I think, in soccer. You may not agree. But if you do, you might want to cut Pardew some slack.

On attack the past season's club functioned better than the previous club in every respect but one: The players didn't convert their chances. The latest club had more of the ball, completed more passes, and most important statistically, created many more scoring opportunities than its predecessor, rising from 15th to 8th in the league in chances. But with the departure of Demba Ba and the cooling of Papiss Cissé, Newcastle plummeted from the league's top five in chance conversion to the near-bottom: Only QPR, at 8 percent, was worse than Newcastle's 11-percent rate. On clear-cut chances, Newcastle created over 25 percent more than last year, but went from converting nearly half to only a third. You decide whether that's the fault of the manager, the players, or the acquisition program. 

In other areas, though, Pardew can't escape so easily. This club was a mess defensively and it never improved. As poor as the chance conversion was, defense accounted for minus-17 of the minus-28 change in goal difference from the previous season. To the naked eye the back looked disorganized too often, with players out of position and clashing with one another - a rhythm section lacking a conductor. Easier to see in the numbers is how opposing attackers blew past Newcastle untroubled. Tackling and intercepting are individual skills, but to rank 18th in both is a team-wide malaise a manager has the power to address. This Newcastle United club, as it stands, doesn't have much grit. They dribble fancy (4th in the league), but they don't intimidate or win clashes. They also went to the air more this past season - "hoofball" if you will, though it's unclear whether that was more a strategy or a defensive last-resort. The French factor? Maybe. But Pardew is an English manager, and he needs to impose some English standards of toughness if his team is to succeed in the world's toughest league.

In short, we come not to praise Pardew nor bury him. This club was a failure and Pardew was its closest overseer. But "Pardew out" is too simplistic. There is plenty of blame for what happened this year and plenty of places to put it.

Comments

[chuvk]

Look you and many of the fans just don't get it !
Pardew is a symptom of the problem, which is Ashley and his micro-management attitude, an obvious control freak.
Who only hires on the basis of cost (thinks football is the rag trade)and yes sirability.
He has been on a slow learning curve since he arrived, and why not, who is he going to learn from, Pardew & Llambias ?
One was desdribed by KK, as knowing less than nothing about the game(Llambias)and he was the one who suggesred Ashley hire Pardew.
because he watched him when he managed West Ham.
If that doesn't explain things then.......

[Mathew]

One big questions from these stats – are you including all the extra games we played in Europe? If so then these are totally skewed numbers. As we played an additional 12 games or so this season.

I hear the argument, Pardew set up the formation/ tactics/ players to win but they just didn’t finish… Then what did he change that caused a 27 goal difference swing (in the wrong direction) this season?

I’m sorry but he keeps using the extra games in Europe as an excuse – that’s the goal of all big clubs, to not only make Europe but the Champions league and yes you want to go deep into the tournament. He didn’t have enough players? Should have done something about that in the summer, he’s the manager for goodness sake!

The injury situation is the only pass he gets – However that doesn’t explain his constant and horrendous decision making on tactics and player selection. Not to mention his half time talks that often lead to a deflated and disinterested team coming back out.

I have accepted we’ll have to deal with him next season but I’m fairly sure this is our last season to keep our big stars and build on the squad. If we don’t finish top 5 look for us to start all over again, new manager, new players etc…

[greg]

I think the main problem I had was his never ending excuses rather than facing the fact that it could be him at fault. His team selection was limited by injuries some happening on the training ground, we were top of the injury league but too many were self inflicted. His tactics plan A seemed to work for 45 minutes only then he would change to plan B but nobody seemed to know what plan B was or plan C but they both meant going deep and defensive. His substitutions were always a mystery to me as he usually takes off our most effective players. Finally his comments about how pleased he was not to have to compete in Europe next season and what his targets are, it is pity he opens his mouth and says something stupid every day, perhaps he should use his turnip/head and pause for thought before his next verbal bloomer. Some of his pre match comments seem to inspire the other team rather than ours
So from my point of view it is what he says and his lack of tactics that let him down but we are stuck with him so lets hope he turns things around next season. I am sure if he looks on Amazon or Ebay he will find an idiots guide to soccer.

[Bob]

Those are Premier League stats only. I'll tweak the chart/post to make that clear, thanks for that question, Mathew.

[Geordie Pat]

Matthew's right. The rhetoric coming from Pardew is almost as worrying as the performances themselves. At turns he has blamed the reserves for not being up to it, the Europa league games, the lack of summer signings, the injuries, the pitches, the referees, a lack of experience, etc, etc. They are all true to some extent but he is paid to find solutions to these problems. Every club will face these issues (apart from the mackems in Europe of course) during a season - you have to find a way to sort it out.

It sounds like someone who is late for work every day, and every day has a new 'valid' reason: the bus broke down, the alarm clock didn't go off, the traffic was heaving. Excuses won't cut it.. or they wouldn't if he was being assessed on merit, as opposed to his willingness to see out his master's murky bidding.

[Mathew]

Toward the end of the season, mainly after we crashed out of Europe to a very misleading score line... (Sad stat, Cisse's goal in that game was the last at SJP this season, April 11th)
Pardew, to me, looked like the guy in Vegas at 3am sitting at the black jack table after hitting the ATM and hit his max withdrawal amount. he's riding all his hopes on a $5 hand and thinking how he'll explain to his wife the missing $3k from the joint account.
Yes, I did hear he has a massive gambling problem and I'm sure most casino dealers in Newcastle have seen that sideline expression once or twice!
My point being, not the type of leader I want for my club...

[VA TOON]

Managers are fired way too often in this league, and this club regardless of what happened this season Pardew didn't turn into a bad manager overnight. Plenty were singing his praises last season. The amount of times he uses his excuses is excessive, but does not relieve their validity. The only one I will not reprieve him from is the European games; if that's where we want to be we have to plan for that, and the lack of planning is a management issue, including Pardew. I believe that our massive injuries and bad second half performances stink of a lack of fitness, something that can certainly be addressed in the summer. There is enough blame to go around for what happened this season as long as our leadership learn from them moving forward we'll be better for it. Though I hate the comparisons there are early MANU & Everton to see this. HWTL!