Six Questions That Will Determine Newcastle's Season

(Today I Wish I Was A Geordie looks ahead to the coming season - for more coverage check out this morning's podcast.)

The last two seasons at Newcastle United tell remarkably distinct stories.

The first was a tale of a club on the rise, armed with a shrewd new business plan, a reliable manager and a collection of players whose talent exceeded their market value.

The second, of course, wasn't nearly as enjoyable. It was the story of a miserly front office, an overwhelmed and undermanned manager and a brittle batch of players who struggled to coalesce on the field (and, according to one infamous newspaper report, in the locker room).

The direction of this season's plot should give us a more accurate reading on the state of the club seven seasons into owner Mike Ashley’s reign.

The smart money is on a narrative that falls somewhere in the middle. Look up and down Newcastle's roster and you'll see more than a few highly-thought-of players with, in theory, their best years ahead of them. You'll also see a handful of holes. It has the look of a mid-table Premier League team. Should fate break Newcastle's way, the club could once again qualify for Europe. On the flip side, if injuries expose a lack of depth or Ashley makes a drastic move (like, say, reinstall Joe Kinnear as manager), then Newcastle could find itself in a similar position to last season.

More than likely, though, this is a team destined to finish somewhere between seventh and 14th.

But what specifically will shape the story of Newcastle's 2013-14 season? Assuming the club doesn’t part with any of its stars over the next two-plus weeks, the answers to these six questions:

6. Will any youngsters break through?
Ashley has never really articulated his vision for the club, but it’s been fairly widely reported that Newcastle’s academy is a considerable part of his plan. Year after year, we hear about money being pumped into the academy, so one would assume that at some point, that investment will yield results.

The front office had hoped that last season would show the first glimpses of progress, with the likes of Haris Vuckic, Sammy Ameobi, Shane Ferguson and James Tavernier providing the necessary depth to cover for the club’s lack of investment in the first team. Alas, the plan didn’t pan out: Vuckic suffered yet another injury, Ameobi was inconsistent when given opportunities, Ferguson faded badly and Tavernier just didn’t look like a Premier League player.

Still, there are a handful of youngsters who could provide an unexpected boost this season. Imagine, for instance, if either Paul Dummett (pictured) — who, by all accounts, has been one of the bright spots of the preseason — or Massadio Haidara (not an academy product, but still a developmental prospect) could break through as a regular option at left back. That could allow manager Alan Pardew to experiment with Davide Santon in a more advanced role where the Italian could utilize his attacking instincts.

Or if Ameobi proves sturdy enough for an extended stretch in the Premier League. Pardew badly needs options on the wings, and the spindly 21-year-old could be an intriguing one. Vuckic is still a manchild with the potential to fill a central attacking midfield role if he ever manages to stay healthy, although he seems fairly certain to be sent out on loan to a Championship club to start the season.

Club academies are supposed to churn out at least a couple of useful players every few years. I’d say Newcastle is about due.

5 & 4. Where does Moussa Sissoko play? And in what formation?
Sissoko was the headliner of the January signings, and he didn’t wait long to demonstrate why. He was the star of back-to-back wins over Aston Villa and Chelsea in his first two games, with his performance in the latter victory serving as arguably the highlight of Newcastle’s dreary season. Pardew surprised everyone by using Sissoko in the hole behind lone striker Papiss Cisse, and the move looked ingenious.

As the season wore on, though, Sissoko’s effectiveness waned, and Newcastle struggled to create scoring chances. Fans called for Pardew to drop Sissoko deeper in the midfield, where he had predominantly played at previous club Toulouse (although, in Pardew’s defense, he wasn’t flush with attacking options).

So where should Sissoko be deployed in the new season? The answer to that question will likely also determine what formation Pardew utilizes.

If Pardew sticks with the 4-2-3-1 alignment he preferred for most of last season, then dropping Sissoko deeper would mean he’d operate in more of a holding role. This creates two problems: Cheick Tiote and Yohan Cabaye are also best suited for the two anchor spots in that formation, and Sissoko might not be able to burst forward as often from that position.

Sissoko can also play as a wide forward — something he did at Toulouse and in stretches last season — but the position doesn’t take advantage of his ball-winning ability and he isn’t likely to trick his way past too many fullbacks.

Based on his skillset, Sissoko looks like a pure box-to-box midfielder to me. To use the powerful Frenchman in that role, though, Pardew may need to tweak his setup either to a more traditional 4-4-2 (with Cabaye sitting deeper like he prefers and Tiote on the bench) or a 4-3-3 (with Tiote, Cabaye and Sissoko all in flexible positions across the midfield).

3. Can Hatem Ben Arfa finally stay healthy?
The tricks, the dribbling, the highlight-reel goals are all wonderful. But how about just staying healthy for a full season?

In three seasons since forcing his way to Newcastle, Ben Arfa has managed only 35 Premier League starts, with 14 appearances off the bench. To be fair, his first season was destroyed by a Nigel de Jong tackle, as opposed to some sort of nagging injury or poor fitness. At this point, though, it’s fair to wonder if Ben Arfa will ever get through a season without having to return to France to rehab.

The French winger (I probably should have used the term “mercurial” there — isn’t that a mandate when discussing Ben Arfa?) creates an interesting dilemma for Newcastle. He’s clearly the most gifted player on the roster, and one of the few game changers at Pardew’s disposal. But how can you build around a player who has yet to start more than 16 Premier League games in a season?

Ben Arfa isn’t the sort of player you can just plug into a lineup, either. He brings another dimension, no doubt, but he also requires shifting to cover defensively (tracking back is not exactly his forte) and he’s prone to over dribbling, which makes timing runs all the more difficult.

Familiarity can ease those issues, though, which why an extended run in the team for Ben Arfa remains such a tantalizing thought. Newcastle showed during the first half of the 2011-12 season that it can win without Ben Arfa, but he has the potential to take the team up another level when he’s on the field.

2. Who starts at center back?
If you look at each of the central defenders on the roster in isolation, two jump to the front of the pack: Fabricio Coloccini and Mapou Yanga-Mbiwa.

Coloccini has been Newcastle’s best player since the club returned to the Premier League in 2010. Yanga-Mbiwa arrived at the club in January after an impressive rise with Montpellier in France’s Ligue 1. They’re clearly the two most talented center backs on the roster, particularly when it comes to playing with the ball at their feet.

But how would they function as a partnership? We don’t really know, considering they’ve played next to each other in the middle a grand total of once (the 1-0 win over Metalist Kharkiv in the Europa League’s round of 32).

Pardew was understandably hesitant to toss Yanga-Mbiwa straight into the lineup, so Steven Taylor filled the spot next to Coloccini until a back injury (on the heels of his failed attempt to wrangle loose of his Newcastle contract to return to Argentina) kept the club captain out until the season’s final three games. Yanga-Mbiwa stepped in, but he and Taylor never seemed to mesh — despite the fact that their skillsets seem to match up well. Thankfully, Coloccini returned in time to help Newcastle pull itself away from relegation, with two steady performances at West Ham (alongside Taylor) and Queens Park Rangers (next to oft-derided Mike Williamson).

Pardew is a fan of Taylor, but he has to be tempted to pair Coloccini with Yanga-Mbiwa. The concern is whether a Coloccini-Yanga-Mbiwa partnership can cope in the air (both are 6 feet tall, which isn’t exactly towering for a center back) and whether Yanga-Mbiwa will handle the physicality of the English game, something he clearly struggled with last season.

For all of the focus about Newcastle’s (bumbling) search for strikers this summer, it’s worth remembering the club allowed 68 goals in Premier League play last season. Only youthful Aston Villa (69) and the relegated duo of Wigan (73) and Reading (73) conceded more. Scoring more goals won’t do much good if Newcastle can’t tighten up defensively, and that starts with a solid central partnership.

1. Will Papiss Cisse have any help up front?
We’ve rehashed Cisse’s precipitous drop enough times. Based on his track record, he’s due to bounce back from last season’s woeful 11 percent chance conversion rate, even if he never again approaches the mind-boggling 37 percent figure he produced in 2011-12. A confident Cisse — or at least a version that doesn’t look as lost as he did at times last season — can score on chances that don’t even appear to exist.

But even if Cisse rebounds with, say, a 15-goal season, he’ll hit his share of droughts. And there will be matches where Pardew simply needs a more physical presence up top. Newcastle flat out needs more options at forward.

Summer loan signing — ahem, THE summer signing — Loic Remy provides one, although his calf injury and legal situation aren’t great omens for the season ahead. Two seasons ago, Shola Ameobi gave Pardew an effective battering ram, but the cult hero struggled with injuries and poor form throughout last season. January signing Yoan Gouffran hasn’t gotten much of a chance in a central role and, while he diligently covers plenty of ground, he doesn’t have much of a track record as a goal scorer.

Whatever happens in the final two weeks of the transfer window — and at this point, Newcastle fans shouldn’t hold their breath — Pardew needs to find the parts to churn out more high-quality scoring chances. Maybe it’s putting Cisse next to another striker. Or playing Ben Arfa or fellow fragile Frenchman Sylvain Marveaux underneath him. Or finding a second dangerous winger to complement Ben Arfa. Either way, Cisse — red hot or misfiring — can’t be as isolated as he was for much of last season.