I Wish I Was A Geordie - The Blog of Newcastle United in the US

Another Public Relations Blunder From Ashley

Newcastle United in yet another public relations disaster? Who'd have thunk it?

If you follow Newcastle even casually, then you know what I'm referring to. Mike Ashley and his lackies have decided to ban three local newspapers — The Journal, the Evening Chronicle and the Sunday Sun — from press conferences, interviews and the press box at St. James' Park after deeming the publications' coverage of an Oct. 19 fan march against Ashley's regime "completely disproportionate" to the turnout.

Ashley and his underlings are entitled to their opinions — wait, who are we kidding? Ashley is clearly the one who's driving this ship — and their contention that the Time4Change march wasn't robustly attended isn't totally off base. But only the totally delusional would argue that there isn't a large segment of the fanbase that would prefer Ashley sold up. If you need a reminder, go on Twitter for 5 minutes.

But even if we pretend for a second that the powers that be at the club were 100 percent correct in their assessment of the newspapers' coverage, the ensuing public relations strategy is bafflingly stupid (not to mention a sickening attempt at censorship). By reacting in such a heavy-handed manner, Ashley and Co. have taken a regional story that had pretty much already petered out and given it legs. Not to mention they've pushed the three newspapers to embolden their coverage of the constant Ashley debate that surrounds the club. All for Ashley to flex his muscles. This from a man who allegedly doesn't care what others think of him.

The sensible move would have been the one that Ashley has repeatedly rejected since taking over: Sit down with the media, give an engaging interview, lay out your vision for the club, and begin to repair your relationship with the fans. But that's clearly not going to happen, and with Derek Llambias out as managing director, we can't even expect sporadic quotes from the board level. Manager Alan Pardew remains the mouthpiece of the club, but the days when he would field fans' questions on BBC Newcastle's Total Sport show seem long ago.

This is a regime that doesn't feel it needs to interact with fans. We get it. Heck, the club's head of media, Wendy Taylor, blocked our account from following her on Twitter, before we had even attempted to do so. Apparently inquiring about media access ahead of Newcastle's 2011 summer tour of the United States was enough to put us on her naughty list.

So why not respond to the Time4Change coverage with Ashley's usual tactic of total silence? This is one instance where it would have served Newcastle well.

Three Points: Sunderland Letdown

Three initial thoughts on Sunday's embarrassing if not entirely unexpected 2-1 loss at Sunderland:

Rudderless: It's hard to pinpoint one tactic or performance to blame for not taking a point against a club that had been amid the worst start in Premier League history. Somehow Sunderland brought the passion (in Alan Pardew's post-match words) while Newcastle brought malaise. Loic Remy didn't appear to care a match was going on, much less a derby. Sunderland may not have won most of the duels but they won nearly all the important ones. Whatever flow Newcastle could muster was stanched quickly by a key interception or tackle. To use a popular American term, Sunderland won the day on hustle. In the end Newcastle once again appeared to lack the on-field confidence a moderately priced veteran or two could provide in a massive game against an inferior opponent.

Midfield mismatch. Or what should've been one, anyway. Newcastle was somehow unable to take advantage of a Sunderland middle relying on a thug and a winger for survival. Cheick Tiote was one of the few bright spots, roaming everywhere in an attempt to enforce some order on the proceedings. But Yohan Cabaye mainly followed Tiote around, and Moussa Sissoko continued his alien-like disappearance as his promising start fades into ever more distant memory. Newcastle's inability to press its strength even when it dovetails with the opponent's weakness is maddening to say the least.

Predictable. A player with Hatem Ben Arfa's skill should be licking his chops against resistance like Sunderland's. His nicely controlled part-shot, part-pass set up the lone NUFC goal, but he somehow couldn't break free to cause any damage on his own - the personifcation of Newcastle's pattern of playing up or down to its competition. Newcastle might well rebound on the other end of the odds next weekend against Chelsea. But it'll be hard to take much encouragement until Newcastle can put away teams it should - the mark of a club headed somewhere beyond mid-table.

Derby Lineups: Captain's Remarkable Recovery?

As a Newcastle fan, it's hard not to get excited about tomorrow's derby. Sunderland looks as non-threatening as a Premier League opponent can possibly look. When matched up against a team this poor, anything but a win is a failure. Yet this club has a way of falling flat at the most inopportune moments. Last year's derby loss, of course, is a prime example. But Alan Pardew should be confident in his team selection and approach tomorrow. With plenty of questions in the back line, keeping the ball in Sunderland's end of the field could be the best form of defense.

As always, I will choose the starting XI I would select for tomorrow's match, then finish the post by predicting Pardew's actual lineup.

Keeper and back four: Tim Krul; Mathieu Debuchy, Mike Williamson, Fabricio Coloccini, Davide Santon

Maybe it's wishful thinking, but a shocking return for Coloccini is definitely a possibility, and it couldn't come at a better time. His steady partnership with Williamson would be a welcome sight in an emotional match. If the captain's groin injury hasn't quite healed, the spotlight will again fall on local hero Paul Dummett. Though Dummett scored a fabulous go-ahead goal against Liverpool last week, he looked a bit unconvincing defensively. Thankfully, Sunderland's attacking players are just a little bit worse than the likes of Daniel Sturridge and Luis Suárez.

Midfield: Cheick Tioté, Moussa Sissoko, Yohan Cabaye

No need for changes after a solid showing from this trio last week. One of the burgeoning storylines of the season is Tioté's return to form and increased maturity. Whatever the snarky English commentators may think, Tioté hasn't really been a reckless tackler since his early days in the Premier League. His "guaranteed yellow cards" are now the product of reputation more than dangerous play. And his sending off at the Stadium of Light last season was a terrible decision, not a reflection of Tioté's challenge on Steven Fletcher.

In his appearances this season, Tioté has tried to play it simple more, and hasn't lingered on the ball nearly as much. In my opinion, he was trying to do too much last season because Cabaye was struggling with injuries and inconsistency. But now that Cabaye is back to his best form, it's allowed Tioté to revert to a more basic game, instead of trying to turn himself into a creative midfielder.

Forwards: Hatem Ben Arfa, Yoan Gouffran, Loïc Rémy

I will beat this drum until I'm on my deathbed: the proper alignment of these three players is Gouffran through the middle, Rémy on the left, and Ben Arfa on the right. Pardew's curious experiment with Ben Arfa as a striker on Saturday fell a bit flat. He just doesn't have the right instincts off the ball to play that role, which makes sense as he's used to having the ball at his feet. On the other hand, Gouffran's off-the-ball movement is superb, and Rémy is an absolute terror when coming in from the left.

Pardew likely chose to start Gouffran on the right because of the defensive support he offers compared to Ben Arfa. Maybe that's an understandable decision against Liverpool, but Sunderland doesn't merit that kind of respect. Hopefully the manager will see that and play his forwards in their best attacking positions.

Who Pardew will choose: Krul; Debuchy, Williamson, Coloccini, Santon; Tioté, Sissoko, Cabaye; Gouffran, Rémy, Ben Arfa

On The Air: Pre-Derby Podcast

While the IWIWAG boys conduct organization meetings in scenic Wisconsin, we hand the keys over to Phil Lavanco to host our pre-derby podcast. Phil, Rob Moyer from Toon Army Philadelphia and the incomparable Barry from the Sunshine State analyze the Liverpool match with a fine-tooth comb, discuss Coloccini's injury, and preview the greatest rivalry in the Premier League.

Who will Alan Pardew start? What's it like to attend a derby match? And what do we, as Americans, do with Jozy Altidore?

All of those questions, and more, are poured over as the B team podcast their way to the starting XI. Click below to listen or visit our iTunes page to download.

IWIWAG_Podcast_10-25-13

Three Points: Stunning Draw Against Liverpool

As my co-blogger Bob tweeted following yesterday's match, Newcastle won 2-2. It may only have added one point to the season tally, but it felt like so much more. My three quick takes on the club's best draw since the 4-4 against Arsenal:

False start for the false nine

The surprise in Alan Pardew's lineup wasn't the players he selected, but the way he arranged them. Instead of going with actual strikers Loïc Rémy or Yoan Gouffran to lead the line, he chose Hatem Ben Arfa. Sadly, Ben Arfa as a pseudo-striker doesn't really work, especially in a match like yesterday's.

Obviously, Ben Arfa doesn't have the ability to play with his back to goal and hold the ball up, something that both Rémy and Gouffran possess to some extent. But he's also not great at making an incisive run off the ball and freeing himself in the box. Because he is accustomed to having the ball so much, it's just not a skill he's ever really developed. So when Newcastle got the ball around the Liverpool goal, its supposed striker was often out of position. In the end, only 2 of the 14 shots aimed at Simon Mignolet came from inside the penalty area. The misuse of Ben Arfa was a big reason why.

Good and bad Yanga-Mbiwa

Mapou Yanga-Mbiwa has to be the most frustrating of Newcastle's January signings. He's got all the physical ability in the world, and captained the French champions at 22 years old. But for all the fantastic plays he's made, he's had a nasty habit of losing focus at inopportune moments. Saturday's performance was a microcosm of his career at the club.

In his 40 minutes of work, he basically stonewalled a potent Liverpool attack (1 tackle, 3 interceptions, 10/11 passing). As shaky as Newcastle looked in defending set pieces, Yanga-Mbiwa didn't appear to be at fault. And in the blink of an eye, he was off, and Liverpool had leveled the score. Obviously, there's no shame in getting beaten by Luis Suárez, and the Uruguayan did what he's known for by going down very easily. There was also a strange mitigating circumstance, as Suárez would have been offside if not for Cheick Tioté getting up off the turf. But it was shaping up to be the match that finally settled Yanga-Mbiwa at the club, and instead he'll be serving a suspension.

6-0 seems far more than 6 months ago

After watching yesterday's showing, it's amazing to think that 8 of those players also got destroyed by Liverpool at St. James' Park in April. Critics of the club's transfer policy have used the 6-0 to highlight its failings. In slightly stereotypical fashion, some of those detractors have claimed that Newcastle's French contingent was mentally weak and didn't know what it took to succeed in the Premier League. In their view, the players lacked fight and dropped their heads whenever things went wrong.

That attitude was not at all apparent in this Liverpool match. Newcastle started confidently, dominating the ball early on, then holding firm when forced to defend. It thoroughly deserved the 1-0 lead it got via Yohan Cabaye's patented long-range strike. The team could have rolled over after losing a man and the lead in one fell swoop. Instead, it continued to stymie its heavily favored opposition. Let's hope the positive vibes continue next Sunday, as there's one more spring result that desperately needs to be avenged. 

Lineups Vs. Liverpool: Can NUFC Avoid Another Rout?

The last time Liverpool came to St. James' Park was a day that we'd all really like to forget. Sparked by Philippe Coutinho (who, by the way, has recovered from his injury and is expected to play tomorrow), the Reds ran riot over a hapless defense. The performance was so poor that it prompted rumors of locker room turmoil.

Six months later, it's difficult to imagine anything except another heavy defeat. Newcastle's back four has been extremely inconsistent, and Fabricio Coloccini won't be around to shepherd it into form. With the match starting at 7:45 am on the East Coast, and even earlier elsewhere in the country, many American fans will be wondering if they should bother waking up at all.

So who should Alan Pardew start tomorrow in an attempt to limit the Liverpool attack and maybe create a chance or two? I've got my best eleven queued up, and will predict the actual starters at the very end of the post.

Keeper and back four: Tim Krul; Mathieu Debuchy, Mike Williamson, Mapou Yanga-Mbiwa, Davide Santon

Mike Williamson one on one with Daniel Sturridge or Luis Suárez. It's a pretty horrifying thing to think about. But with Coloccini out, the Williamson/Yanga-Mbiwa partnership is probably the best Newcastle can muster. Williamson's one big gaffe against Cardiff City obscured an otherwise decent performance, and Yanga-Mbiwa's speed could be an asset. Maybe the international break allowed Yanga-Mbiwa to reflect on his disastrous display against Everton, and he'll come out focused and trying to prove a point. Maybe Williamson won't whiff on an attempted clearance and leave himself in no-man's land. I'm not getting my hopes up, but I suppose it could happen.

Midfield three: Yohan Cabaye, Vurnon Anita, Moussa Sissoko

I'll give the much-maligned Cheick Tioté his due: he had a pretty strong performance against Cardiff. Like the rest of the team, he succumbed to the pressure early in the second half. Still, he was probably better two weeks ago than in any match last season. That being said, Anita was playing quite well before being replaced. Liverpool doesn't have the physical midfield presence that makes you think twice about playing him, either. And in a match where Newcastle will likely be looking to counterattack, he's the better option.

Forwards: Hatem Ben Arfa, Yoan Gouffran, Loïc Remy

Was it any surprise that I'd go with Gouffran in my lineup once again? Perhaps Papiss Cissé deserves another look after scoring for Senegal during the international break. But Gouffran makes sense tomorrow for a host of reasons. Obviously, he's in far better form this season. He also fits a counterattacking style much better than Cissé, with his speed, ability to hold the ball up when necessary, and rapport with Ben Arfa and Rémy. Newcastle will be trying to make the most of its limited time on the ball tomorrow, and Gouffran is the striker who's more likely to generate a chance at the moment.

Who Pardew will choose: Krul; Debuchy, Williamson, Yanga-Mbiwa, Santon; Cabaye, Tioté, Sissoko; Ben Arfa, Cissé, Rémy.

Mike Williamson: Missing Piece Or Another Liability?

Guest post by Phil Lavanco

He stands 6-foot-3, 185 pounds, with hair side-parted to the right. His right triceps is freshly inked with characters that presumably mean “HOOF.” His name is Mike Williamson, and he might just be the missing link in the Newcastle back four.

Alan Pardew boldly selected the fourth center back on the depth chart to face the Bluebirds (Dragons?) after Williamson came on in the second half against Everton to plug the gaping hole left by Mapou Yanga-Mbiwa. With his impressive performance against the BlueDragonBirds, the Englishman emerged from the Toon wilderness. Williamson repaid the manager’s faith with an impressive performance against the promoted side, which had already defeated Man City at the Millennium Stadium.

The statistics from Cardiff lend further proof of a commanding performance from the center back. The Englishman won nine of 10 headed duels, was a perfect 18-for-18 in clearances and completed 83 percent of his passes.

OK, maybe some of Williamson’s passes were of the “hoof” variety, but we can all admit that after the first half, the narrative of Williamson’s place on the team was edging near “Coloccini’s best defensive partner.” Williamson was one poorly attempted kung fu kick away from a lockdown performance. In addition, our curly-haired captain seemed more comfortable next to Williamson.

It makes sense, too, when you think about it. Williamson’s role was to clear away everything launched in the air, while the captain took it upon himself to clean up the rest. A clear and defined role for each player. It’s simplistic, but it works. Now the captain is out after suffering a groin injury while away on international duty with Argentina.

We can safely assume Pardew will restore Yanga-Mbiwa to the starting lineup for tomorrow’s game against Liverpool. But who to partner with MYM? Should Pardew stick with Williamson or recall Steven “Jazz hands” Taylor? Not to do the work of Mr. Feltz, but let’s do a quick scan of the situation.

On paper, Taylor appears to be the logical choice. He is more equipped to deal with the movement of Liverpool’s dynamic strike partners Daniel Sturridge and Luis Suarez. However, Taylor and Yanga-Mbiwa were on the field for the horrific beat down at St. James’ Park last campaign.

In addition, Tom’s colorful article on the defensive pairings showed in spreadsheet form that the combo of MYM and Taylor has conceded an awful 18 goals in nine matches as a partnership. In those closing months of last year’s horror, the pair failed the dreaded “eyeball test.” They did not appear to be a functioning partnership with the ability to stop quality opponents.

If Pardew keeps Williamson in the lineup with Yanga-Mbiwa, he would keep the “defined roles” parallel, but risk exposing the big man to the creativity and movement of Sturridge and Suarez. This partnership leads to another world of problems.

Liverpool boss Brendan Rodgers is a lot of things, but he isn’t silly. He would lick his chops at the prospect of unleashing his two strikers on Williamson.

All in all, this is a selection nightmare for Pardew. One that we, as a fan base, are pretty sure he will not get right. My only prediction for the match is that I will be watching through a tiny slit between my middle and ring fingers.

Phil Lavanco (@Lavanglish) is a contributor to the “I Wish I Was A Geordie” podcast and a member of Toon Army NYC.

Talking NUFC With Former US International Jimmy Conrad

Jimmy Conrad is many things.

Major League Soccer legend. Former United States national team player. World Cup veteran. Budding media personality (check out his live show on KICKTV). All-around wacky guy.

And Newcastle United fan. Yes, Newcastle is Jimmy's club of choice in England. So we used Twitter to stalk Jimmy (@JimmyConrad, if you wanted to do the same) and then blackmailed him to answer a few questions about why he chose Newcastle, how to defend Shearer, and more.

A transcript of our email interview follows.

Why and how did you become a Newcastle fan?

When I was a much younger man, back in the mid-90s, the only games you could catch on TV here in the States were Manchester United games, which meant all of my bandwagon friends became obsessed with the Red Devils. And even though I'll admit to thinking that Eric Cantona was a great player, I couldn't bring myself to support the whole team. Fortunately, I caught a game between United and United from St. James' Park and I was blown away by the performance of Ferdinand and Ginola and Albert and Asprilla and the passionate crowd and the black-and-white strips and I made my decision. They were going to be my team in England, which made it even harder when United caught them at the end of the year to win the title. We had it all wrapped up! Or so I thought.

What's your take on the current state of the club?

When I was a player, the fans and media were always a lot more reactionary and emotional than we were on the field, because if we acted the same way, it would've taken up so much energy as a group to indulge in the highs and lows that it, ultimately, would've detracted from our performance and made things even worse. So, from my former player's perspective, which attempts to be devoid of emotion, when Newcastle finished fifth a few seasons ago, I didn't think we were that good and when we finished right above the relegation zone last season, I don't think we were that bad. We're something in the middle. From a reactionary fan's perspective, we're the best team that ever lived and I'm livid that we didn't sign another player or two in the transfer window after Kinnear made it clear he was intending to!

If you could have played with any Newcastle player other than Alan Shearer (since he's the obvious answer), who would it be? Why?

Philippe Albert, because I loved how he would just bomb forward with reckless abandon, which means I would've been the perfect partner for him because I like to stay at home and organize.

Have you been to a match at St. James' Park?

Sadly, I have not but when I do, it'll be for a Sunderland match. I only want to witness the very best atmosphere in the world when they're at their most emotional.

How would you have defended Shearer?

I'm not sure you could defend him straight up because of how strong he was, both physically and in the air, but you could defend everyone else around him. So if you could limit the service he got from the wings and keep him in front of you when he's winning second balls, etc., then you would put yourself in a good position to limit his influence. He would probably still find a way to score, though.

Do you think Newcastle has the potential to gain a large following in America?

I think it does but, as I touched upon earlier, America is full of bandwagon fans so until Newcastle starts winning trophies on a regular basis, then they'll never be as big as the clubs that spend the most money.

The Dangerous Game Of Mid-Table Ambition

Half of soccer is luck. You might hear fans say that out of frustration or exaggeration, but it's a serious point in an interesting new book on the science of world football. The Numbers Game: Why Everything You Know About Soccer Is Wrong was co-authored by a two Ivy League social scientists, one a behavioral economist and the other a former English goalkeeper turned professor of government. Quoting studies dating back to the 19th century and adding their own examinations, the authors make a persuasive case that only half of what happens in a soccer game or season can be controlled by the players and teams. The other half is random, making soccer the most luck-dependent professional sport played on Earth - which says a lot about Newcastle's last two seasons, not to mention the club's prospects for the future under the hand of Mike Ashley.

Faithful readers of the blog know I'm the stat-head of the operation. As such I could go on and on about how the authors arrive at their half-of-soccer-is-luck conclusion; I'll spare you except to say, the rarity of goals in soccer makes them more important than scoring plays in other sports, and the high number of things that have to go right to get a goal means more of the scoring in soccer is subject to luck than other sports. You might not agree. But let's suppose this is right.

Immediately we gain a greater understanding of the rise and crash of Newcastle United the past two seasons. Statistically, the 5th-place '11-'12 club looks eerily similar to the 16th-place '12-'13 club. In fact, the club that narrowly escaped relegation looks better in some key respects than the club that went to Europe: increased possession, better passing, more chances. The one glaring exception is chance conversion. Far fewer chances turned into goals last season, especially off the foot of Papiss Cissé, who declined from one of the top chance-converters in the world to perhaps the worst in the league.

That itself could be in part a matter of luck. In studying strikers' statistics I've noted that chance conversion is more variable from player to player and among individual players from year to year than chance creation, which could explain some of what's happened to Cissé. Getting the chance seems more a matter of skill on the part of the striker and the players serving him, while putting the chance in is a matter of other things over which the striker has less control - the goalkeeper's positioning and reaction at the moment, for example. There's no question Cissé bears responsibility for his decline as a scorer; we can see the difference in his skill and pace and confidence with the naked eye. But his decline has likely been exaggerated by luck - the breaks went his way two years ago and not last year. Similarly, there's no question Newcastle's entire squad wasn't as good last season as the previous season - that's also obvious from the naked eye. But the team's crash, like Cissé's, was likely exaggerated by luck one year and lack the next.

If soccer is indeed half luck, it bodes ill for Newcastle's future as a club whose ambition is open to question. The historical Premier League survival line is about 37 points. But if a team controls only half its points, the level of real safety in the Premier League is something approaching double that: 65 or 70 perhaps. To put it another way, only the top five or six teams in skill and talent have no fear of relegation due to bad luck as a given season unfolds. Results bear that out: In the relatively short history of the Premier League, only seven clubs have never been relegated, and of those, Aston Villa was in as close a scrape as Newcastle last season.

Fans accuse Mike Ashley of having no more ambition than to keep his club mid-table and take a profit. There's plenty of supporting evidence for that in Newcastle's player acquisition approach. The problem is, soccer may be too volatile to guarantee a mid-table finish for a mid-table-quality club. If The Numbers Game authors are correct, the only way to be safe from relegation is to aim for Europe. In soccer, more than any other sport, fortune favors the bold.

Three Points: Newcastle Wins, Pardew Exhales

First, second and third quick impressions from Newcastle United's potentially manager-saving 2-1 victory at Cardiff City on Saturday:

Head start: The beginning of a match is no more important statistically than the middle or end, but if the start indicates the level of preparation as coaches sometimes say, Alan Pardew had Newcastle exquisitely prepared for a match which some (including us) saw as a referendum on his job. Newcastle had the first 10 chances and threatened to blow a Cardiff club that stood five spots above on the table out of its home ground. It may have been the most complete and relentless half I've seen from United in my few years as a fan. Especially encouraging was the stout performance of the defense, with near-perfect positioning and anticipation after three nightmarish halves. Newcastle looked like a club that knew the importance of the fixture and cared.

4 play: Yohan Cabaye's early-season petulance during his courtship by Arsenal is a distant memory after one of his finer appearances in black-and-white. I can't think of another player on the squad who brings as much both going forward and tracking back. My co-bloggers hailed him in real time on Twitter with Matt highlighting Cabaye's deftness at the one-man press, which frequently results in a fast turnover or an easily intercepted long ball. It's hard to imagine a club in any kind of serious trouble with someone playing Cabaye's role as well as Cabaye did on Saturday.

Super subs: The Twittersphere and our pubsphere were apoplectic at the 71st when nearly forgotten Jonas Gutierrez was sent in for Loic Remy (who I thought might've been limping as he departed). Jonas made his manager look like a genius, shutting down multiple avenues of a resurgent Cardiff second-half attack. Hatem Ben Arfa looked to have gotten the message sent by his omission from the starting XI by winning a couple of key free kicks and occasionally placing himself in the way of someone. It might've been too much to ask Newcastle to dominate an entire road match as it did the first half. But the way in which the squad closed the last 20 minutes did United and particularly its manager proud.